Below is a graph and data table that shows the 1980-2005 actual populations and the projections for the years 2010-2030 for the eleven largest counties in Tennessee.  The data below will show that the estimated population in year 2030 will be less than it was in 1980 for Sullivan County.

I am sure that the past and current elected leaders will want this graph and the facts below to disappear because it reflects on their lack of response to address the problem with Sullivan County and its cities in its declining population and other problems in the Sullivan County area.  This blog will continue to expose the facts and there will be ”No Spin” and “No WhiteWash! of the data presented on this blog.

Top Eleven Largest Counties Population – 1980 to 2030

Data for the graph and the table below is from the following links State and County Population and Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

Other Facts

• In 1980, Sullivan County was the fifth largest county and it is estimated that in 2030, Sullivan County will be the eleventh largest county.
• The population of Sullivan County is an older population and the median age for Sullivan County is 42.9 years, Tennessee is 37.2 years and Florida is 39.8 years.  The Percent 65 Years and Over for Kingsport is 20.1%, Bristol is 19.5%, Sullivan County is 17.8% and Florida is 17.4%.
• Sullivan County and its cities, (Kingsport and Bristol) have a large number of young adults leaving the area.
• The death rate for Sullivan County is more than the birth rate.
• Sullivan County birth rate is low as compared to the state.
• Sullivan County only gained 852 people between years 2000 to 2008 which gave a net gain of 0.56 percent growth.
• Average Household median income is low for the area.  Kingsport is $34,391, Bristol is $36,454, and Sullivan County is $37,559. Two people in the same household making the new Federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour would make $30,160 per year.
• The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 12.2%, Kingsport is 11.6%, and Bristol is 16.2%. These percentages are 2007 numbers and could be higher due to the recession.  The household median income for 65 and older in Sullivan County is $28,070.
• The poverty level for Kingsport is 18%, Bristol is 14.6%, and Sullivan County is 15.8%.  These percentages are 2007 numbers and could be higher due to the recession.  Poverty level for 2009 is defined for a person’s income to be $10,830 per year.
• Kiplinger’s Personal Finance survey rates the Kingsport MSA as having the highest cost of living, low median income and the worst job growth out of 10 major cities/metro areas in Tennessee.
• The area unemployment is high with Kingsport having the highest unemployment – See link for more details Jobs/Unemployment
• The Republican Party has continuously controlled Tennessee’s 1st Congressional District since 1881.  It appears for the most part that most of the new jobs are going to the more Democrat Party area.
• Kingsport has publicly stated that they would like to make Kingsport a destination city for visitors to the area while not addressing the real problems the area faces.  Spending the tax payers’ money to obtain a short-cut to generate revenue, in my view, does not help the average citizen. Spending money for a conference center expansion and aquatic center will not solve the area’s problems.  The aquatic center will not make any difference when one needs a job and there is not one available locally.  By the same token, if a job exists in the area and you need it badly, then the aquatic center does not enter the picture.
• The area has one of the largest employers (Eastman Chemical) in the state and a major tourist attraction (Bristol Nascar Race).  It appears that the elected leaders have become complacent about finding new good paying jobs because these two businesses have not increased the population and/or stopped the exit of young adults leaving the area.
• Kingsport is the largest city in Sullivan County and is proud of its reputation for having good schools.  Dobyns-Bennett High School has been named by Newsweek magazine as one of the top high schools in the country.  Having great schools apparently is not enough to keep the young adults from leaving the area in search of good paying jobs.
• Kingsport has built a Higher Education Center, but I have a concern that there will not be the needed jobs in the area for those who finish their education.  I am for education, but with the large number of students, and with nothing major coming in as far as jobs, many will leave to look elsewhere for jobs.  Increasing the percentage of college graduates in the area is good, but the percentage of college graduates might be skewed because of the number of college educated young people leaving the area and the fact that the large percentage of older folks that do not have higher education.
• It appears that local cities are striving to get new retail business into the area as an easy way to increase revenue.  Having retail is a quick way to get revenue, but as retail increases in a given city, then the share that retailers gets decreases because they have to share retail sales among many retailers.  I think a better approach would be to increase the flow of money into the area via good paying jobs, which would  provide for longer term stability for these retailers and this will also increase the standard of living for city/county citizens.
• Because of declining revenues or increased spending, cities in Sullivan County have chosen to annex new areas for the tax revenue, increase their population, and to enable the city to borrow more because of the increased asset value.  This helps the cities, but decreases the already low standard of living for the citizens.

Conclusion

The facts presented above may concern some that bringing out these issues will cause folks or businesses to avoid the North East Tennessee area.  The facts presented above are available to anyone who desires to do research.  I am sure that any large company would do their research before deciding to invest in Sullivan County.  I also feel that “enough is enough” and the issues need to be up-front and center stage to be addressed.  No more hiding the issues….deal with them head on so the region will begin to respond economically. Good paying jobs in my view is what is needed to restore what has been lost.

There must be lots of jobs and a few hundred will not do.  It should be a broad mix of jobs that would be attractive to different types of workers who have different skills or educational training.

We need elected officials that will not cater to special interests groups or use get rich quick schemes to get revenue into the local government.  Get the money flowing into the area via good paying jobs and then the region might become attractive to those job seekers. The current and past economic development efforts are not working and efforts need to be stepped up and action is needed now.  If the economic development people are not capable of delivering results, then they need to be replaced.  If local politics are hindering the economic development efforts, then that needs to be exposed and addressed.

If you are an elected official or economic development person and your views or lack of vision is holding up the region from rebounding, then you need to step aside.

What you can do?

• Go to BMA and Sullivan County Commissioners meetings and make your views known.
• Talk to your BMA or Sullivan County Commissioners individually.
• Talk to your neighbors and friends and get them involved.
• Send this post via email to your friends and neighbors.
• Talk to your U.S  Congress Legislators. and Tennessee Legislators
• Vote in the next election for those that can address the area’s problems
• Keep the pressure on the elected officials.
• Write letters to the editors at the local newspapers (Kingsport and Bristol).  Let this blog know if your letter to the editor is refused and provide a copy via the “You Report It! menu item at the top of the this page.
• Participate in local talk radio shows to express your views.
• Start your own blog.
• Now is the time to voice your concerns before taxes are raised in the future

Update: This blog has sent the post below to 83 people via email or U.S.Mail that are in the list below.

Kingsport Board of Mayor and Alderman
Mayor of Sullivan County
Sullivan County Commissioners
Bristol City Council
Bluff City Mayor and Alderman
Kingsport Chamber of Commerce
Tennessee Legislators for North East TN
U.S. Congress Legislators for North East TN
Commissioner Matt Kisber- TN Economic & Community Development
Governor Phil Bredesen
Tennessee Candidates for Governor
NETWORKS Sullivan Partnership Board of Directors and Members

I am sure that the past and current elected leaders will want this graph and the facts below to disappear because it reflects on their lack of response to address the problem with Sullivan County and its cities in its declining population and other problems in the Sullivan County area.  This blog will continue to expose the facts and there will be ”No Spin” and “No WhiteWash! of the data presented on this blog.

Top Eleven Largest Counties Population – 1980 to 2030

Data for the graph and the table below is from the following links State and County Population and Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

Other Facts

• In 1980, Sullivan County was the fifth largest county and it is estimated that in 2030, Sullivan County will be the eleventh largest county.
• The population of Sullivan County is an older population and the median age for Sullivan County is 42.9 years, Tennessee is 37.2 years and Florida is 39.8 years.  The Percent 65 Years and Over for Kingsport is 20.1%, Bristol is 19.5%, Sullivan County is 17.8% and Florida is 17.4%.
• Sullivan County and its cities, (Kingsport and Bristol) have a large number of young adults leaving the area.
• The death rate for Sullivan County is more than the birth rate.
• Sullivan County birth rate is low as compared to the state.
• Sullivan County only gained 852 people between years 2000 to 2008 which gave a net gain of 0.56 percent growth.
• Average Household median income is low for the area.  Kingsport is $34,391, Bristol is $36,454, and Sullivan County is $37,559. Two people in the same household making the new Federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour would make $30,160 per year.
• The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 12.2%, Kingsport is 11.6%, and Bristol is 16.2%. These percentages are 2007 numbers and could be higher due to the recession.  The household median income for 65 and older in Sullivan County is $28,070.
• The poverty level for Kingsport is 18%, Bristol is 14.6%, and Sullivan County is 15.8%.  These percentages are 2007 numbers and could be higher due to the recession.  Poverty level for 2009 is defined for a person’s income to be $10,830 per year.
• Kiplinger’s Personal Finance survey rates the Kingsport MSA as having the highest cost of living, low median income and the worst job growth out of 10 major cities/metro areas in Tennessee.
• The area unemployment is high with Kingsport having the highest unemployment – See link for more details Jobs/Unemployment
• The Republican Party has continuously controlled Tennessee’s 1st Congressional District since 1881.  It appears for the most part that most of the new jobs are going to the more Democrat Party area.
• Kingsport has publicly stated that they would like to make Kingsport a destination city for visitors to the area while not addressing the real problems the area faces.  Spending the tax payers’ money to obtain a short-cut to generate revenue, in my view, does not help the average citizen. Spending money for a conference center expansion and aquatic center will not solve the area’s problems.  The aquatic center will not make any difference when one needs a job and there is not one available locally.  By the same token, if a job exists in the area and you need it badly, then the aquatic center does not enter the picture.
• The area has one of the largest employers (Eastman Chemical) in the state and a major tourist attraction (Bristol Nascar Race).  It appears that the elected leaders have become complacent about finding new good paying jobs because these two businesses have not increased the population and/or stopped the exit of young adults leaving the area.
• Kingsport is the largest city in Sullivan County and is proud of its reputation for having good schools.  Dobyns-Bennett High School has been named by Newsweek magazine as one of the top high schools in the country.  Having great schools apparently is not enough to keep the young adults from leaving the area in search of good paying jobs.
• Kingsport has built a Higher Education Center, but I have a concern that there will not be the needed jobs in the area for those who finish their education.  I am for education, but with the large number of students, and with nothing major coming in as far as jobs, many will leave to look elsewhere for jobs.  Increasing the percentage of college graduates in the area is good, but the percentage of college graduates might be skewed because of the number of college educated young people leaving the area and the fact that the large percentage of older folks that do not have higher education.
• It appears that local cities are striving to get new retail business into the area as an easy way to increase revenue.  Having retail is a quick way to get revenue, but as retail increases in a given city, then the share that retailers gets decreases because they have to share retail sales among many retailers.  I think a better approach would be to increase the flow of money into the area via good paying jobs, which would  provide for longer term stability for these retailers and this will also increase the standard of living for city/county citizens.
• Because of declining revenues or increased spending, cities in Sullivan County have chosen to annex new areas for the tax revenue, increase their population, and to enable the city to borrow more because of the increased asset value.  This helps the cities, but decreases the already low standard of living for the citizens.

Conclusion

The facts presented above may concern some that bringing out these issues will cause folks or businesses to avoid the North East Tennessee area.  The facts presented above are available to anyone who desires to do research.  I am sure that any large company would do their research before deciding to invest in Sullivan County.  I also feel that “enough is enough” and the issues need to be up-front and center stage to be addressed.  No more hiding the issues….deal with them head on so the region will begin to respond economically. Good paying jobs in my view is what is needed to restore what has been lost.

There must be lots of jobs and a few hundred will not do.  It should be a broad mix of jobs that would be attractive to different types of workers who have different skills or educational training.

We need elected officials that will not cater to special interests groups or use get rich quick schemes to get revenue into the local government.  Get the money flowing into the area via good paying jobs and then the region might become attractive to those job seekers. The current and past economic development efforts are not working and efforts need to be stepped up and action is needed now.  If the economic development people are not capable of delivering results, then they need to be replaced.  If local politics are hindering the economic development efforts, then that needs to be exposed and addressed.

If you are an elected official or economic development person and your views or lack of vision is holding up the region from rebounding, then you need to step aside.

What you can do?

• Go to BMA and Sullivan County Commissioners meetings and make your views known.
• Talk to your BMA or Sullivan County Commissioners individually.
• Talk to your neighbors and friends and get them involved.
• Send this post via email to your friends and neighbors.
• Talk to your U.S  Congress Legislators. and Tennessee Legislators
• Vote in the next election for those that can address the area’s problems
• Keep the pressure on the elected officials.
• Write letters to the editors at the local newspapers (Kingsport and Bristol).  Let this blog know if your letter to the editor is refused and provide a copy via the “You Report It! menu item at the top of the this page.
• Participate in local talk radio shows to express your views.
• Start your own blog.
• Now is the time to voice your concerns before taxes are raised in the future

Comments are Welcome

Please feel free to add comments via this blog

WASHINGTON — Eastman Chemical Co. spent $270,000 lobbying the federal government in the second quarter on clean energy, antitrust and other issues, according to a recent disclosure report.

Read more via Eastman Chemical spent $270K on lobbying in 2Q » Knoxville News Sentinel.

Eastman Chemical was ranked at 11 as one of the Top Corporate Air Polluters in the U.S.

The Toxic 100 index identifies the top U.S. air polluters among the world’s largest corporations. The index relies on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) project. The starting point for the RSEI is the EPA’s Toxics Release Inventory (TRI), which reports on releases of toxic chemicals at facilities across the United States. TRI data are widely cited in press stories on “top polluters,” but they have limitations that the Toxic 100 addresses:

Toxic 100 Index (Top 20 are shown below)

Click here for full list

This makes two chemical spills at Eastman in the last two weeks!!  What is going on over there?  They were fined $48,000 back in April, 2009 by the Department of Environment and Conservation.  See Eastman Chemical fined by TDEC for many violations

Another chemical spill at Eastman Chemical Company on Wednesday morning.

Eastman officials say there was a brief accidental discharge in the South Fork Holston River due to the over-pressurization of a process reactor.

The spill was a mixture of diethyl ether, the same type of spill that occurred on July 28, 2009, and tetraethyl pyrophosphate.

Representatives from Department of Environment and Conservation’s Johnson City field office conducted a site investigation Wednesday morning.

Eastman reports no employees were injured but approximately one dozen fish were killed. Eastman does not expect this release to have any further adverse impact on the South Fork Holston River. A team is investigating the incident.

via Eastman Chemical Spill In Holston River | TriCities.

Below is a series of ranking tables that compares the top 20 Tennessee counties that had the largest retail sales in 2008.  The top 20 counties listed below had retail sales that were $71,443,928,487 out of a total $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Sullivan County is highlighted because of its declining population, low median wages, and young adults leaving Sullivan County.  The major cities in Sullivan County are Kingsport and Bristol. Sullivan County has one of the largest private employers in the state (Eastman Chemical) and as well as the Bristol Nascar race.

The tables below will  show that there are many counties that are doing much better than Sullivan County without having an Eastman Chemical or the Bristol races.

The problems as I see it have been ongoing for several decades. As an elected leader or involved in economic development, is this something that you are proud of?  This blog will continue to point out the problems and if elected leaders fail to respond to the problems….at least the world will know about Sullivan County.  The bottom line is that the Northeast Tennessee needs good paying jobs!!

Sullivan County has a history of being controlled by Republicans.  It just might be that this may be the problem.  Maybe we need Democratic leadership to get something done.

Also in Table 1 are links for the county websites.  Some county web pages are well done and project a good image for the county and some are rather plain and are lacking in information such as access to public documents (minutes, etc.).  You can be the judge as to which counties have the best website by clicking on the links below in Table 1.

The top 20 counties below in Table 3 had retail sales that were  $71,443,928,487 out of $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Nine counties did better than Sullivan County in the Retail Sales per Person column and four of them were in East Tennessee.

Tables 5 and 6 below show the Estimated Current Property Values for the counties and shows how strong the property taxes are for a county.  The property values below include industrial and commercial, residential, farms, etc.

The property vales used in table 5 were taken from the 2008 Tax Aggregate Report of Tennessee.  The Estimated Current Property Value column in Table 5 includes the county and municipalities property values and are added together for one property value for the county in Table 5.

Williamson and Sevier Counties are clearly the big winners in Table 6. Washington County which does not have an Eastman Chemical but has more Property Value per Person than Sullivan County and is a smaller county in square miles.

In the above Tables 3 and 4, Bradley County rank was 17 for both retail sales and retail sales per person.  In Table 6, Bradley County has a rank of 5 and would indicate a strong manufacturing base.  Also Bradley County will be getting the $1 billion Wacker Chemie AG plant which will employ 500 – 600 people.

Hemlock Semiconductor Corp.,  plans to build a $1.2 billion facility near Clarksville (Montgomery County). That project is expected to open in 2012 and create 800 jobs.

Volkswagen plans to employ about 2,000 workers and invest about $1 billion in Chattanooga.

Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Races have been good for Sullivan County, but in my opinion the county, Kingsport, and Bristol have relied on it for far too long and have become complacent when it comes to economic development.

Sullivan County in Table 7 has the worst rank of the top 2 retail sales counties for population growth.  Over an eight year period from years 2000 to 2008, Sullivan County only gained 850 in population.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030

All data used in the above tables are from the links highlighted above in blue.

Below is a series of ranking tables that compares the top 20 Tennessee counties that had the largest retail sales in 2008.  The top 20 counties listed below had retail sales that were $71,443,928,487 out of a total $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Sullivan County is highlighted because of its declining population, low median wages, and young adults leaving Sullivan County.  The major cities in Sullivan County are Kingsport and Bristol. Sullivan County has one of the largest private employers in the state (Eastman Chemical) and as well as the Bristol Nascar race.

The tables below will  show that there are many counties that are doing much better than Sullivan County without having an Eastman Chemical or the Bristol races.

The problems as I see it have been ongoing for several decades. As an elected leader or involved in economic development, is this something that you are proud of?  This blog will continue to point out the problems and if elected leaders fail to respond to the problems….at least the world will know about Sullivan County.  The bottom line is that the Northeast Tennessee needs good paying jobs!!

Sullivan County has a history of being controlled by Republicans.  It just might be that this may be the problem.  Maybe we need Democratic leadership to get something done.

Also in Table 1 are links for the county websites.  Some county web pages are well done and project a good image for the county and some are rather plain and are lacking in information such as access to public documents (minutes, etc.).  You can be the judge as to which counties have the best website by clicking on the links below in Table 1.

The top 20 counties below in Table 3 had retail sales that were  $71,443,928,487 out of $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Nine counties did better than Sullivan County in the Retail Sales per Person column and four of them were in East Tennessee.

Tables 5 and 6 below show the Estimated Current Property Values for the counties and shows how strong the property taxes are for a county.  The property values below include industrial and commercial, residential, farms, etc.

The property vales used in table 5 were taken from the 2008 Tax Aggregate Report of Tennessee.  The Estimated Current Property Value column in Table 5 includes the county and municipalities property values and are added together for one property value for the county in Table 5.

Williamson and Sevier Counties are clearly the big winners in Table 6. Washington County which does not have an Eastman Chemical but has more Property Value per Person than Sullivan County and is a smaller county in square miles.

In the above Tables 3 and 4, Bradley County rank was 17 for both retail sales and retail sales per person.  In Table 6, Bradley County has a rank of 5 and would indicate a strong manufacturing base.  Also Bradley County will be getting the $1 billion Wacker Chemie AG plant which will employ 500 – 600 people.

Hemlock Semiconductor Corp.,  plans to build a $1.2 billion facility near Clarksville (Montgomery County). That project is expected to open in 2012 and create 800 jobs.

Volkswagen plans to employ about 2,000 workers and invest about $1 billion in Chattanooga.

Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Races have been good for Sullivan County, but in my opinion the county, Kingsport, and Bristol have relied on it for far too long and have become complacent when it comes to economic development.

Sullivan County in Table 7 has the worst rank of the top 2 retail sales counties for population growth.  Over an eight year period from years 2000 to 2008, Sullivan County only gained 850 in population.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030

All data used in the above tables are from the links highlighted above in blue.

I would be embarrassed to be a current or past elected leader or those having been responsible for economic development in Sullivan County, Kingsport, and Bristol Tennessee.  The ongoing problem of several decades with the young adults leaving the area and the fact that Sullivan County and its cities have an older population has not been addressed to stop the pattern of a declining population.

I am sure that our elected leaders would not want to publicly discuss this subject, but this blog will continue to make the public aware of the situation.  In my opinion, having a company like Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Race is good for the area, but having them has made the area complacent and the leaders have not done enough to get other good paying jobs here.

There may be some who may be wondering why approach this subject because of the negative impact it may have on future people moving to the area.  My answer is that there are about two decades of not addressing this problem with results.  Enough is enough!!  Let’s get it out front and center so the citizens/leaders can understand the problems and find solutions.

The graph below is from the State of Tennessee and gives a comparison for Sullivan County against Tennessee.  The time span for the graph is from 1990 to 2000 and shows that Sullivan did lag behind in the number of young people residing in the county.  Note in the graph that it appears that the age bracket 18-24 shows that our young folks are leaving the area and the age bracket 25-44 only had a 0.1% increase.  The 65 and over age bracket in Sullivan County did better than the state with a 19.1 percent increase.

The last line in the graph gives the county rank and Sullivan County did not fare well.  In the 18-24 age bracket, Sullivan County came in as having the worst rank of all 95 counties in the state.  The 65 and over age bracket gave Sullivan County a better rank of 28.

Population Growth Rate (1990 to 2000) was 6.6% which gave Sullivan County a rank of 90 out of 95 counties.  The growth rate for years 2000- 2008 is .56%

*A rank of 1 indicates the best condition.

Population Growth by Age Bracket, 1990 to 2000

Using more current data from the U.S. Census shows that Sullivan County and its cities have a low birth rate, young adults are still leaving the area, high median age and a high percentage of older adults age 65 and over.

The age distribution graph below on the left shows that Kingsport has a greater number of young adults leaving the area and has more older adults.

The graph on the right compares Tennessee, Florida, and Sullivan County.  Most folks have an impression that Florida has a lot of retirement-age people, but Sullivan County has a larger percentage of older adults.

2005-2007 age distribution data from U. S. Census

The City of Kingsport uses a method of water meter turn on and off to keep track of its movement in the population.  This method is flawed since the young adults are more likely living with their parents and would not be picked up by the water meter method when they leave the area.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030.

I would be embarrassed to be a current or past elected leader or those having been responsible for economic development in Sullivan County, Kingsport, and Bristol Tennessee.  The ongoing problem of several decades with the young adults leaving the area and the fact that Sullivan County and its cities have an older population has not been addressed to stop the pattern of a declining population.

I am sure that our elected leaders would not want to publicly discuss this subject, but this blog will continue to make the public aware of the situation.  In my opinion, having a company like Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Race is good for the area, but having them has made the area complacent and the leaders have not done enough to get other good paying jobs here.

There may be some who may be wondering why approach this subject because of the negative impact it may have on future people moving to the area.  My answer is that there are about two decades of not addressing this problem with results.  Enough is enough!!  Let’s get it out front and center so the citizens/leaders can understand the problems and find solutions.

The graph below is from the State of Tennessee and gives a comparison for Sullivan County against Tennessee.  The time span for the graph is from 1990 to 2000 and shows that Sullivan did lag behind in the number of young people residing in the county.  Note in the graph that it appears that the age bracket 18-24 shows that our young folks are leaving the area and the age bracket 25-44 only had a 0.1% increase.  The 65 and over age bracket in Sullivan County did better than the state with a 19.1 percent increase.

The last line in the graph gives the county rank and Sullivan County did not fare well.  In the 18-24 age bracket, Sullivan County came in as having the worst rank of all 95 counties in the state.  The 65 and over age bracket gave Sullivan County a better rank of 28.

Population Growth Rate (1990 to 2000) was 6.6% which gave Sullivan County a rank of 90 out of 95 counties.  The growth rate for years 2000- 2008 is .56%

*A rank of 1 indicates the best condition.

Population Growth by Age Bracket, 1990 to 2000

Using more current data from the U.S. Census shows that Sullivan County and its cities have a low birth rate, young adults are still leaving the area, high median age and a high percentage of older adults age 65 and over.

The age distribution graph below on the left shows that Kingsport has a greater number of young adults leaving the area and has more older adults.

The graph on the right compares Tennessee, Florida, and Sullivan County.  Most folks have an impression that Florida has a lot of retirement-age people, but Sullivan County has a larger percentage of older adults.

2005-2007 age distribution data from U. S. Census

The City of Kingsport uses a method of water meter turn on and off to keep track of its movement in the population.  This method is flawed since the young adults are more likely living with their parents and would not be picked up by the water meter method when they leave the area.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030.

Tennessee County Ranking Report for Population Growth

County Population Estimates

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008

Tennessee Counties are ranked in the table below as percent growth in the highlighted column.  Sullivan County growth rate was .56 percent and gained 852 people over an eight year period.  Sullivan County rank was 75 and Shelby County rank was 72.

Data is from U.S. Census and you can see data for all states by going to the following link.

County Population Estimates

Median Age Continues to Rise in Sullivan County, TN

The median age of the population in Sullivan County and its major cities has been rising.  This is a function of young adults leaving the area and the low birth rate.

Below in the table are median ages for the nine largest Tennessee Counties, Tennessee and Florida.

Data in the graph from U.S.Census

State Ranking Report Shows Where People Retire

Below is data that show the percent of people that are age 65 and older for the states below.  I have included Sullivan County, Tennessee and its two largest cities (Kingsport and Bristol).  The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 15 percent and the household median income is $28,070. The percent below is the percent of the population for the locations below.  Do not assume that the top three high-lighted areas below in the table are a haven for retires.  For the three high-lighted areas, it more of a function of low birth rates and young adults leaving the area.  There will have another post with the details on on all ages for Sullivan County, TN. United States — States GCT-T4-R. Percent of the Total Population Who Are 65 Years and Over (geographies ranked by estimate). Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates

* – 2007 Estimate All data is from U.S. Census

East TN County needs young adults to populate county

In the table below are the top nine largest populated counties in Tennessee. The table shows that the Sullivan County death rate is 1,228 more than the birth rate.  Sullivan County had a Total Population Change of 850 people over an eight year period (April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008) whereas Washington County that adjoins Sullivan County had a net gain of 11,441. The data below is from U.S. Census and you can download the data set for any state at the following link.  The data is in XLS spreadsheet format. County Population Estimates If you want to see just the Tennessee County data, go to the link below. http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2008-04-47.xls

Using the data set from the U.S. Census and sorting all Tennessee Counties on the Natural Increase column shows Sullivan County as having the largest decrease for Natural Increase in the state.  Shown below are the top ten Tennessee Counties that had the largest Natural Decrease. (more deaths than births)

Population Comparison For Top Nine Largest Tennessee Counties

Google has a neat way of plotting State and County population by just clicking on a state or counties within a state.  The public U.S. Census data is shown as in the graphs below and its quick and easy to see the exact population for a given year by moving your mouse over the plotted line.  The population data available for plotting goes back to 1980. Below on the left is Sullivan County population and the right side graph shows nine of the largest counties in Tennessee.  Sullivan County population is not growing and has not shown any significant growth for some time.  Elected officials and economic development folks for Sullivan County and its cities should review so they can see the progress they have made in prior years. The link is:  Graph other states and counties

Tennessee’s Best and Worst Cities Rankings

Here are the 361 U.S. metropolitan areas that Kiplinger’s Personal Finance considered for its list of Best Cities: It’s All About Jobs. See where your city ranks by sorting our criteria. The Cost of Living Index is based on 100 being the national average. To learn more about the creative class, click here. Salary Growth is the increase in household income from 2004 to 2008. Employment Growth is the growth in jobs on a per capita basis from 2000 to 2007. (Source: Kevin Stolarick of the Martin Prosperity Institute) Click on the following link to see all 361 U.S. metropolitan areas .  Full City Rankings 2009

Best and Worst Cities in Tennessee

Below is data for Tennessee metropolitan areas that has been extracted from the list of 361 cities.

The data for a given column below that is highlighted in Green is the best for the Tennessee metropolitan areas mentioned below.  If the data is in Red, then that metropolitan area has the lowest or worst data for the metropolitan areas below.

The rank is stated below within parenthesis ( ) and shows the rank as compared for all 361 U.S. metropolitan areas.  A rank of 1 would be the best and a rank of 361 would be the worst

In the table below, we can see that the Kingsport area has the highest cost of living, the lowest household income, and the worst job growth.

Sullivan County declining population – It’s time for a new direction!

Sullivan County, Tennessee and its cities have a problem with a declining population.  This has been a problem since year 2000 and Sullivan County comes out as the loser as keeping the population.  Elected leaders need to ask some hard questions why this is occurring and make changes to stop this trend.  Elected leaders may be faced with cutting services or raise taxes because of reduced revenue coming in.  However, cutting services or raising taxes and not addressing the problem would show that the elected leaders is not capable of handling the problem.

In the table below are the top 11 Tennessee Counties and their population rank based on state population estimates.  Sullivan County goes from a year 2000 rank of 6 to a rank of 11 in year 2030.

Below are graphs for selected East Tennessee county and city population estimates.  In the “County Population Estimates”, all counties are showing growth while Sullivan County is showing a decline.

The “City Population Estimates” graph shows population growth for all cities except Sullivan County cities, Kingsport and Bristol.

Data for the above is from the State of Tennessee via the links below.

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Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

TACIR, in conjunction with The University of Tennessee Center for Business and Economic Research, has published a new report containing population projections for Tennessee cities and counties in five-year intervals from 2010 to 2030. The purpose of the projections is to aid in local planning efforts, such as those outlined in Public Chapter 1101 (PC1101). The complete report and tables are available below.

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee, 2010 to 2030

Population Projection Tables HTML | EXCEL

• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Arrayed by County HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Alphabetically HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* by Development District HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties within MSAs HTML | EXCEL

*Does not include the effects of annexations after 2000.

Kingsport Population Growth

In the City of Kingsport city population table below it shows that the % growth from 2000 to 2007 resulted in a negative growth (-1.6%), while Johnson City had the best growth of 8.2%.  Morristown growth was 4.2%.  Bristol and Greeneville both had 0.3% growth. Sullivan County growth is static and Kingsport is even more dismal.  Even with Kingsport going the route of captured growth through forced annexations, they cannot even keep up with the death rate.

City Population Table

Recently, the United States Congress has drafted legislation in hopes of increasing security at chemical plants against terrorist attacks. Part of this security includes requiring the chemical companies to use government mandated processes rather than their own. We aren’t just talking about huge chemical companies, though; we’re even talking about small companies all over America and even college campuses. As always, once regulations start rolling they snowball into full disasters.

Read more via New Chemicals Rule Would Cost Jobs, Increase Water Prices | Americans for Prosperity.