No WhiteWash!

Below is a series of ranking tables that compares the top 20 Tennessee counties that had the largest retail sales in 2008.  The top 20 counties listed below had retail sales that were $71,443,928,487 out of a total $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Sullivan County is highlighted because of its declining population, low median wages, and young adults leaving Sullivan County.  The major cities in Sullivan County are Kingsport and Bristol. Sullivan County has one of the largest private employers in the state (Eastman Chemical) and as well as the Bristol Nascar race.

The tables below will  show that there are many counties that are doing much better than Sullivan County without having an Eastman Chemical or the Bristol races.

The problems as I see it have been ongoing for several decades. As an elected leader or involved in economic development, is this something that you are proud of?  This blog will continue to point out the problems and if elected leaders fail to respond to the problems….at least the world will know about Sullivan County.  The bottom line is that the Northeast Tennessee needs good paying jobs!!

Sullivan County has a history of being controlled by Republicans.  It just might be that this may be the problem.  Maybe we need Democratic leadership to get something done.

Also in Table 1 are links for the county websites.  Some county web pages are well done and project a good image for the county and some are rather plain and are lacking in information such as access to public documents (minutes, etc.).  You can be the judge as to which counties have the best website by clicking on the links below in Table 1.

The top 20 counties below in Table 3 had retail sales that were  $71,443,928,487 out of $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Nine counties did better than Sullivan County in the Retail Sales per Person column and four of them were in East Tennessee.

Tables 5 and 6 below show the Estimated Current Property Values for the counties and shows how strong the property taxes are for a county.  The property values below include industrial and commercial, residential, farms, etc.

The property vales used in table 5 were taken from the 2008 Tax Aggregate Report of Tennessee.  The Estimated Current Property Value column in Table 5 includes the county and municipalities property values and are added together for one property value for the county in Table 5.

Williamson and Sevier Counties are clearly the big winners in Table 6. Washington County which does not have an Eastman Chemical but has more Property Value per Person than Sullivan County and is a smaller county in square miles.

In the above Tables 3 and 4, Bradley County rank was 17 for both retail sales and retail sales per person.  In Table 6, Bradley County has a rank of 5 and would indicate a strong manufacturing base.  Also Bradley County will be getting the $1 billion Wacker Chemie AG plant which will employ 500 – 600 people.

Hemlock Semiconductor Corp.,  plans to build a $1.2 billion facility near Clarksville (Montgomery County). That project is expected to open in 2012 and create 800 jobs.

Volkswagen plans to employ about 2,000 workers and invest about $1 billion in Chattanooga.

Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Races have been good for Sullivan County, but in my opinion the county, Kingsport, and Bristol have relied on it for far too long and have become complacent when it comes to economic development.

Sullivan County in Table 7 has the worst rank of the top 2 retail sales counties for population growth.  Over an eight year period from years 2000 to 2008, Sullivan County only gained 850 in population.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030

All data used in the above tables are from the links highlighted above in blue.

Below is the household median income for the top 20 Tennessee Counties that had the largest retail sales.  The household median income is for the county and may be different for cities within the county.  Below is the household median Income for Sullivan County cities

Kingsport  $34,391  – Individuals below poverty level 18.0%

Bristol  $36,454 – Individuals below poverty level 14.6%

Sullivan County – Individuals below poverty level 15.8%

Below is the household income distribution for Kingsport and the household median income for Kingsport is $34,391.  In the graph below there are 2,636 people who are living in poverty.

I would be embarrassed to be a current or past elected leader or those having been responsible for economic development in Sullivan County, Kingsport, and Bristol Tennessee.  The ongoing problem of several decades with the young adults leaving the area and the fact that Sullivan County and its cities have an older population has not been addressed to stop the pattern of a declining population.

I am sure that our elected leaders would not want to publicly discuss this subject, but this blog will continue to make the public aware of the situation.  In my opinion, having a company like Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Race is good for the area, but having them has made the area complacent and the leaders have not done enough to get other good paying jobs here.

There may be some who may be wondering why approach this subject because of the negative impact it may have on future people moving to the area.  My answer is that there are about two decades of not addressing this problem with results.  Enough is enough!!  Let’s get it out front and center so the citizens/leaders can understand the problems and find solutions.

The graph below is from the State of Tennessee and gives a comparison for Sullivan County against Tennessee.  The time span for the graph is from 1990 to 2000 and shows that Sullivan did lag behind in the number of young people residing in the county.  Note in the graph that it appears that the age bracket 18-24 shows that our young folks are leaving the area and the age bracket 25-44 only had a 0.1% increase.  The 65 and over age bracket in Sullivan County did better than the state with a 19.1 percent increase.

The last line in the graph gives the county rank and Sullivan County did not fare well.  In the 18-24 age bracket, Sullivan County came in as having the worst rank of all 95 counties in the state.  The 65 and over age bracket gave Sullivan County a better rank of 28.

Population Growth Rate (1990 to 2000) was 6.6% which gave Sullivan County a rank of 90 out of 95 counties.  The growth rate for years 2000- 2008 is .56%

*A rank of 1 indicates the best condition.

Population Growth by Age Bracket, 1990 to 2000

Using more current data from the U.S. Census shows that Sullivan County and its cities have a low birth rate, young adults are still leaving the area, high median age and a high percentage of older adults age 65 and over.

The age distribution graph below on the left shows that Kingsport has a greater number of young adults leaving the area and has more older adults.

The graph on the right compares Tennessee, Florida, and Sullivan County.  Most folks have an impression that Florida has a lot of retirement-age people, but Sullivan County has a larger percentage of older adults.

2005-2007 age distribution data from U. S. Census

The City of Kingsport uses a method of water meter turn on and off to keep track of its movement in the population.  This method is flawed since the young adults are more likely living with their parents and would not be picked up by the water meter method when they leave the area.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030.

Mac McLean wrote an excellent article Many Officials Confused about Disclosure Forms’ Rules in the Bristol Herald Courier. Mac McLean did some great research and I encourage you to read the entire article. 

The law requires that they report all private income, but not what they receive for serving in the public office they hold. The law states that as a general rule, any private income that must be reported to the IRS should be included on the form, including wages, capital gains, lecture fees, dividends, business income, bank account interest, payments from annuities, and trust income.

…..Sullivan County Commissioner Buddy King of Bristol said he “filled out the form according to how it read,” but when shown a copy, he said he didn’t remember filling one out.

Read more via Many Officials Confused about Disclosure Forms’ Rules | TriCities.

This blog on Feb 23, 2009 posted the following concerning Commissioner Buddy King.  Sullivan County Commissioner ethics exposed

There was another Commissioner that voted for the above resolution whose name is James “Buddy” King from Bristol. Apparently, open government is not important to Commissioner James “Buddy” King for wanting to discuss the “peoples’ business” in private.

Upon checking the “Statement of Disclosure of Interests” submitted by Commissioner James “Buddy” King, there are some areas of concern.

The 2009 “Statement of Disclosure of Interest” filed by Commissioner James “Buddy” King on January 14, 2009, shows no income, investments, etc.

2009 Statement of Disclosure of Interests (ss-8005) (filed 2009-01-14) Witness by Larry Bailey

The 2008 “Statement of Disclosure of Interest” filed by Commissioner James “Buddy” King on January 14, 2008, again shows no income, investments, etc. and is essentially the same as year 2009, except that James “Buddy” King was his own witness.

2008 Statement of Disclosure of Interests (ss-8005) (filed 2008-01-14) Witness by James “Buddy” King

It is very unusual that Commissioner James “Buddy” King would not have any income to declare on his 2009, 2008 disclosures filed with the State. However, in the 2007 “Statement of Disclosure of Interest” for Commissioner James “Buddy” King, it gets interesting.

On page 916 in the link 2007 Disclosure of Interests for Local Office Holders and Candidates it states the following sources of income, investments, and lobbying activities.

Sources of Income

SOCIAL SECURITY, ORNL RETIREMENT, MATERIALS ENGINEERING & TESTING Investments

TEAMSTERS RETIREMENT, STATE RETIREMENT (SULLIVAN COUNTY)

Lobbying:

WALMART, BB&T BANK,CSX RAILROAD, SPRINT/NEXTEL

Why are you not disclosing your income, investments, lobbying activities for the last two years Commissioner James “Buddy” King? This information is the publics’ business and plus, I think it is the law that it needs to be disclosed.

I find it particularly interesting to find that Commissioner James “Buddy” King is an elected official of Sullivan County and yet was involved and could still be involved in lobbying activities.

The median age of the population in Sullivan County and its major cities has been rising.  This is a function of young adults leaving the area and the low birth rate.

Below in the table are median ages for the nine largest Tennessee Counties, Tennessee and Florida.

Data in the graph from U.S.Census

Below is data that show the percent of people that are age 65 and older for the states below.  I have included Sullivan County, Tennessee and its two largest cities (Kingsport and Bristol).  The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 15 percent and the household median income is $28,070.

The percent below is the percent of the population for the locations below.  Do not assume that the top three high-lighted areas below in the table are a haven for retires.  For the three high-lighted areas, it more of a function of low birth rates and young adults leaving the area.  There will have another post with the details on on all ages for Sullivan County, TN.

United States — States GCT-T4-R. Percent of the Total Population Who Are 65 Years and Over (geographies ranked by estimate). Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates

* – 2007 Estimate

All data is from U.S. Census

The comments of citizens in the Bristol Herald Courier link below might be of interest to you.  Some great comments concerning the King Medical School.

There was one lone commissioner that voted against the resolution  to support the medical school.  Thank you Commissioner John McKamey for using good logic in your “no” vote.  It appears that the remaining commissioners are more concerned about money than they are about understanding the area’s problems.

Sullivan County’s resolution, approved in a 21-1 vote, also included no money for the project.

Commissioner John McKamey of Piney Flats cast the lone dissenting vote. He said the county has a shortage of doctors because it hasn’t done anything to keep the ones who graduate from programs like the Quillen College of Medicine at East Tennessee State University in Johnson City, Tenn., from leaving the area.

“Over half the people who graduate [from Quillen] leave the area,” McKamey said as he challenged one of the reasons for supporting the school. “The solution to this thing is to keep the doctors here.”

McKamey said if the county supports the medical school now, it would commit itself to paying $100 million in taxpayer money. He said the $50 million in local taxes and $50 million in state taxes would be too large a burden for the region’s residents to bear.

Read more via Sullivan Commission Supports King College Med School | TriCities.

King College, a denominational college located in Bristol, Tennessee, has been in discussions with Kingsport, Bristol, and Sullivan County officials to build a medical school in Kingsport and Bristol.

The cost for the medical school would be about $150 million.  King is looking for $50 million to come from the cities of Kingsport ($40 million) and Bristol ($10 million), $50 million from the State of Tennessee, and the remaining $50 million from private donations.

At the July 7, 2009, Kingsport, Tennessee Board of Mayor and Alderman, a resolution was passed on first reading to endorse the King College Medical School Initiative, and pledged its commitment to work with Bristol, Sullivan County, and King College to advance the project.

While it does sound like a good project for the area, there will be a major impact on the taxpayers if this is funded via a property tax increase.

Mayor Dennis Phillips has stated that if Kingsport were to fund $40 million for the project, property taxes would have to be raised 25 cents.

Below are tax rates that have been extracted from the Tennessee Property Tax Rates that show the top 20 cities that have the highest tax rates in Tennessee from 406 different tax rates for the different cities and counties.

I have added 25 cents to the tax rates for the two Kingsport line items (Kingsport-Sullivan and Kingsport-Hawkins) in the table below.  Kingsport, with the 25 cents added, would have a rank of 10 and 12 as having the most expensive tax rates in the state.  Bristol has a rank of 14 and I have no knowledge if they would increase property taxes.

Top 20 Cities with the most expensive property tax rates

* The current city and county combined tax rate for Kingsport-Sullivan County is $4.86 and Kingsport-Hawkins County is $4.86.  Twenty-five cents has been added to each of the Kingsport tax rates in the above table.

The household median income for Kingsport is $34,391 and the Kingsport majority of Kingsport property owners would pay over 5.5 percent of household income ($150k home) for property taxes if  the 25 cents is added to the Kingsport tax rate.  The Kingsport rank is 6 and 7 and Bristol comes in at a rank of 8 in the table below for the largest percent of household income needed to pay property taxes.

A taxpayer funded medical school would reduce the already low Kingsport household income and would reduce the standard of living for the majority of Kingsport citizens so the city could reap the benefits of increased revenue to spend on other pet projects.

Top 20 Cities that take the highest percentage of income for property taxes

* The current city and county combined tax rate for Kingsport-Sullivan County is $4.86 and Kingsport-Hawkins County is $4.86.  Twenty-five cents has been added to each of the Kingsport tax rates in the above table.

The above cities that have a college appear not to have increased the standard of living and have a low household median income.

Below is the household income distribution for Kingsport and the household median income for Kingsport is $34,391.  In the graph below there are 2,636 people who earn less than $10,000  classifying them as living in poverty.

I challenge the elected officials to venture outside of their social and political groups and try to understand the plight of the majority of wage earners in the Kingsport area.  The medical school would bring jobs, but some of these jobs will be imported jobs and the common folks would not have the background or training for these jobs.  Ask what you can do to raise the standard of living (higher income) for Kingsport citizens without imposing a property tax burden.

I feel that the taxpayers should not be taking the risk of funding a medical school when there already is a state funded one in Johnson City.  The need for doctors in this area is questionable since the population is declining in Sullivan County.  If they area has trouble attracting doctors or keeping doctors, then take a hard look at the reason.

Quality of Life issues are important, but a good Standard of Living for local folks just might make the area prosper by increased spending by the majority of citizens.

The bottom line is that the area needs good paying jobs without the additional burden on the taxpayers.

I need to point out that no funding has been voted on so far, but projects such as this grows legs very fast and then its then to late to react.  The intent of this post is to make you aware of the issues so you can make your views know.  Update:  Many elected officials have expressed their support of this project including Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey who may make it a part of his campaign for governor.  Again, I must point out that I am not against the project but am very concerned about it being funded by taxpayers.

Please contact your elected officials and tell them NO to a taxpayer funded denominational medical school.  Click on the email links below and add your comments in your own email program.

Sullivan County, Tennessee and its cities have a problem with a declining population.  This has been a problem since year 2000 and Sullivan County comes out as the loser as keeping the population.  Elected leaders need to ask some hard questions why this is occurring and make changes to stop this trend.  Elected leaders may be faced with cutting services or raise taxes because of reduced revenue coming in.  However, cutting services or raising taxes and not addressing the problem would show that the elected leaders is not capable of handling the problem.

In the table below are the top 11 Tennessee Counties and their population rank based on state population estimates.  Sullivan County goes from a year 2000 rank of 6 to a rank of 11 in year 2030.

Below are graphs for selected East Tennessee county and city population estimates.  In the “County Population Estimates”, all counties are showing growth while Sullivan County is showing a decline.

The “City Population Estimates” graph shows population growth for all cities except Sullivan County cities, Kingsport and Bristol.

Data for the above is from the State of Tennessee via the links below.

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

TACIR, in conjunction with The University of Tennessee Center for Business and Economic Research, has published a new report containing population projections for Tennessee cities and counties in five-year intervals from 2010 to 2030. The purpose of the projections is to aid in local planning efforts, such as those outlined in Public Chapter 1101 (PC1101). The complete report and tables are available below.

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee, 2010 to 2030

Population Projection Tables HTML | EXCEL

• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Arrayed by County HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Alphabetically HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* by Development District HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties within MSAs HTML | EXCEL

*Does not include the effects of annexations after 2000.

Here are the 361 U.S. metropolitan areas that Kiplinger’s Personal Finance considered for its list of Best Cities: It’s All About Jobs. See where your city ranks by sorting our criteria. The Cost of Living Index is based on 100 being the national average. To learn more about the creative class, click here. Salary Growth is the increase in household income from 2004 to 2008. Employment Growth is the growth in jobs on a per capita basis from 2000 to 2007. (Source: Kevin Stolarick of the Martin Prosperity Institute)

Click on the following link to see all 361 U.S. metropolitan areas .  Full City Rankings 2009

Best and Worst Cities in Tennessee

Below is data for Tennessee metropolitan areas that has been extracted from the list of 361 cities.

The data for a given column below that is highlighted in Green is the best for the Tennessee metropolitan areas mentioned below.  If the data is in Red, then that metropolitan area has the lowest or worst data for the metropolitan areas below.

The rank is stated below within parenthesis ( ) and shows the rank as compared for all 361 U.S. metropolitan areas.  A rank of 1 would be the best and a rank of 361 would be the worst

In the table below, we can see that the Kingsport area has the highest cost of living, the lowest household income, and the worst job growth.