No WhiteWash!

The Kingsport, Tennessee area have gotten themselves more National attention with the recent Gallup-Healthways surveys.

WebMD article below gives (America’s Most Obese Metropolitan Areas) a summary of Gallup’s findings.

Please go to the Gallup link (What America’s Most Obese Metro Areas Have in Common) for more detail.

Do we need more restaurants in the Kingsport area?

America’s Most Obese Metropolitan Areas

March 3, 2010 — A ranking of No. 1 — or being in the Top 10 — isn’t always something to crow about.

The latest Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index lists the 10 most obese metropolitan areas in the U.S. and finds that adult obesity rates in each are significantly greater than the national average of 26.5%.

Here’s a list of the 10 most obese metro areas, with those ranking highest having the greatest obesity rates.

1. (tie) Montgomery, Ala., and Stockton, Calif.: 34.6%
2. Visalia/Porterville, Calif.: 34.1%
3. York/Hanover, Pa.: 34%
4. Flint, Mich.: 33.9%
5. McAllen/Edinburg/Mission, Texas: 33.7%
6. Bakersfield, Calif.: 33.6%
7. (tie) Lynchburg, Va., and Huntington/Ashland, West Va., Ky., Ohio: 33%
8. Kingsport/Bristol, Tenn., Va.: 32.9%

Eating Fruits and Veggies

The latest Well-Being Index also examines factors that are linked to obesity.

Here’s a look at how metro areas ranked according to the percentage eating fruits and vegetables frequently — listed from worst to best. The nationwide percentage is 56.8%.

1. McAllen/Edinburg/Mission, Texas:  45.7%
2. Montgomery, Ala.: 52.7%
3. Bakersfield, Calif.: 53.1%
4. Stockton, Calif.: 54.8%
5. Flint, Mich.: 56.4%
6. Visalia/Porterville, Calif.: 56.6%
7. Lynchburg, Va.: 56.8%
8. York/Hanover, Pa.: 59.0%
9. Huntington/Ashland/ West Va., Ky., Ohio 60.2 %
10. Kingsport/Bristol Tenn., Va.:  62.2%

Exercising Frequently

Here’s a look at the rankings — from worst to best — of the percentage of people exercising frequently. The percentage nationwide is 49.9%.

1. Montgomery, Ala.:  43.3%
2. Flint, Mich.:  44.5%
3. McAllen/Edinburg/Mission, Texas: 45.8%
4. Lynchburg, Va.: 46.1%
5. Huntington/Ashland, W. Va., Ky., Ohio:   47.7%
6. York/Hanover, Pa.: 47.8%
7. Bakersfield, Calif.:  48.4%
8. Kingsport/Bristol, Tenn., Va.: 48.5%
9. Visalia/Porterville, Calif.:  49.2%
10. Stockton, Calif.:  51%

Gallup-Healthways says in a news release that eight of the 10 most obese areas rank in the bottom two-thirds in terms of having easy access to fruits and vegetables and nine rank in the bottom two-thirds for having a safe place to exercise.

Seven of the 10 most obese metro areas rank among the bottom 25 places where residents say there have been times in the past year when they didn’t have enough money to buy food for themselves or family members.

Obesity’s Link to Health Problems

The researchers note that obesity often is a precursor to chronic health problems, including high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, and heart attack. These conditions were included in the Gallup-Healthways physical health index.

The report also finds that:

• Each of the 10 most obese metro areas are in the bottom two-thirds of all places in terms of diabetes.
• The Huntington/Ashland areas of West Va., Kentucky, and Ohio, with Montgomery, Ala., and the Kingsport/Bristol area on the Tennessee-Virginia line are in the bottom 10 among all metro areas surveyed in regard to blood pressure, with rates nearly 10 percentage points above the national average.
• Huntington and Kingsport, along with Lynchburg, are in the bottom 10 for high cholesterol.
• Huntington and Kingsport are among the bottom 10 for heart attacks, with rates almost twice the national average.
• Four of the 10 most obese areas are in the top third among all metro areas for not smoking, but the other six rank in the bottom two-thirds.

The Gallup-Wellbeing report is based on telephone interviews with more than 353,000 adults 18 and over between Jan. 2, 2009, and Dec. 29, 2009. It has a margin of sampling error of 0.2 percentage points.

via America’s Most Obese Metropolitan Areas.

Copyright ©2009, WebMD, LLC. All rights reserved

A new survey from Gallup and Franklin-based Healthways Inc shows that the Kingsport area is ranked as the bottom ten cities for overall well being.  It appears that the physical, emotional, social and professional aspects of folks in the Kingsport area has helped drag the State of Tennessee to its low scores.

I wonder how our elected leaders will “spin” this study to make themselves look good.  Maybe, they might try even more to spend more money to help their cause.  So far the out of control spending for pet projects by our local elected officials has not seemed to work.

The Kingsport area has managed to get lots of national media attention with this study.

Nashville-area residents have the highest well-being among Tennesseans, although the state as a whole continues to rank near the bottom nationally when it comes to overall quality of life.

That’s the conclusion of two reports published today by Gallp and Franklin-based Healthways Inc. The reports are based on more than 350,000 surveys completed in 2009 that measure how respondents are faring in all aspects of their daily lives: physically, emotionally, socially and professionally.

Nashville ranks 63rd among 185 cities nationwide in the city-level report, up 22 spots from 2008. In report-card terms, that’s the equivalent of a B. Memphis and Knoxville scored Ds, while Chattanooga and Kingsport both graded an F.

In fact, Kingsport ranks among the bottom 10 cities nationwide in overall well-being, scoring dead last in the categories of life evaluation and physical health. Fort Smith, Ark., came in last overall, while Boulder, Colo. topped the list.

In the state-level report, Tennessee ranks 42nd, the same as in 2008. The bright spot was work environment, where the state ranks 12th. Hawaii had the highest well-being among states, while West Virginia had the lowest.

Gallup and Healthways published state and congressional district rankings for 2008. But this is the first time since polling began in January 2008 that city rankings have been announced.

“It’s our hope that these rankings are not treated as competition, but as a wake-up call,” said Anne Wilkins, Healthways’ chief strategy officer. “Even the highest-ranked cities and states have room for improvement, and hopefully communities can look at these rankings and figure out how to improve the lives of their citizens.”

Gallup and Healthways entered into a 25-year partnership in 2008 with the goal of creating an official statistic for the daily state of health and well-being in the United States.

Aggregating 1,000 calls a day, 350 days a year, the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index is the largest behavioral economic database ever created and is expected to generate more than 9 million individual responses over the next quarter-century.

Healthways provides specialized, comprehensive medical solutions for insurers and employers to help patients manage and improve their health and reduce health care costs.

The company ranks No. 16 on Nashville Business Journal’s list of largest public companies in Middle Tennessee with revenue of $789.5 million in 2008.

Best and worst

Top 10 Cities Overall 1. Boulder, Colo. 2. Holland, Mich. 3. Honolulu, Hawaii 4. Provo, Utah 5. Santa Rosa, Calif. 6. Santa Barbara, Calif. 7. San Jose, Calif. 8. Washington, D.C. 9. Ogden, Utah 10. Oxnard, Calif.

Bottom 10 Cities Overall 1. Fort Smith, Ark. 2. Huntington, W. Va. 3. Lake Havasu City, Ariz. 4. Johnstown, Penn. 5. Modesto, Calif. 6. Charleston, W.Va. 7. Flint, Mich. 8. Youngstown, Ohio 9. Kingsport, Tenn. 10. Shreveport, La.

Top 10 States Overall 1. Hawaii 2. Utah 3. Montana 4. Minnesota 5. Iowa 6. Vermont 7. Colorado 8. Alaska 9. North Dakota 10. Kansas

Bottom 10 States Overall 1. West Virginia 2. Kentucky 3. Arkansas 4. Ohio 5. Nevada 6. Alabama 7. Indiana 8. Mississippi 9. Tennessee 10. Louisiana

Source: Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index City and State Reports

via Healthways, Gallup: Tennesseans’ well-being lags, boosted by Nashville – Nashville Business Journal:.

 

Note the rankings below for Kingsport.  The number of cities studied in 185.  Kingsport came in dead last in “Life Evaluation” and “Physical Health”.  Kingsport’s overall score is 179 out of 185.  Click on the link below for more information on the Tennessee study.

2009 City, State & Congressional District Well-Being Report for Tennessee

 

Check out new Tri-Cities jobs If you are looking for a job in the Tri-Cities Tennessee area.

http://www.newTriCitiesjobs.com has released a new job board for local jobseekers. Unlike the larger national job boards, http://www.newTriCitiesjobs.com focuses on local employers and local candidates only. “After evaluating other online job boards, and even local job boards, it immediately became apparent that we have a great opportunity to reach out to the local jobseekers with information that is relevant to them. Recruiting in the Tri-Cities area is unlike recruiting in other areas”, says Director of Operations, Judy Kreger.

“We want to share all the tools and information that we have built over the past ten years in the online recruitment space to help our local neighbors use the Internet in the most effective way to find local jobs.”

“Many jobseekers are not fully aware how online job postings and resume databases work, and we want to educate them, and help them find a better job using our services”, continued Kreger.

http://www.newTriCitiesjobs.com is comprised of local jobs from all over the Kingsport, TN, Johnson City, TN, and Bristol TN/VA markets. In addition, the site also features an educational blog to educate jobseekers on everything from how to effectively search for a job on the Internet, to the ins and outs of the recruiting systems, and what happens when an applicant submits an application online.

King College, a denominational college located in Bristol, Tennessee, has been in discussions with Kingsport, Bristol, and Sullivan County officials to build a medical school in Kingsport and Bristol.

The cost for the medical school would be about $150 million.  King is looking for $50 million to come from the cities of Kingsport ($40 million) and Bristol ($10 million), $50 million from the State of Tennessee, and the remaining $50 million from private donations.

At the July 7, 2009, Kingsport, Tennessee Board of Mayor and Alderman, a resolution was passed on first reading to endorse the King College Medical School Initiative, and pledged its commitment to work with Bristol, Sullivan County, and King College to advance the project.

While it does sound like a good project for the area, there will be a major impact on the taxpayers if this is funded via a property tax increase.

Mayor Dennis Phillips has stated that if Kingsport were to fund $40 million for the project, property taxes would have to be raised 25 cents.

Below are tax rates that have been extracted from the Tennessee Property Tax Rates that show the top 20 cities that have the highest tax rates in Tennessee from 406 different tax rates for the different cities and counties.

I have added 25 cents to the tax rates for the two Kingsport line items (Kingsport-Sullivan and Kingsport-Hawkins) in the table below.  Kingsport, with the 25 cents added, would have a rank of 10 and 12 as having the most expensive tax rates in the state.  Bristol has a rank of 14 and I have no knowledge if they would increase property taxes.

Top 20 Cities with the most expensive property tax rates

R a n k	County	City	Total County and City Tax	Property Tax for $150k Home	Household Median Income	% Taxes from Household Income	Median Home Value
1	SHELBY	MEMPHIS	$7.29	$2,734	$32,285	8.47%	$130,695
2	SHELBY	GERMANTOWN	$5.63	$2,111	$113,733	1.86%	$278,800
3	SHELBY	BARTLETT	$5.63	$2,111	$74,091	2.85%	$164,600
4	KNOX	KNOXVILLE	$5.50	$2,063	$32,538	6.34%	$102,300
5	ANDERSON	OAK RIDGE	$5.45	$2,044	$45,474	4.49%	$120,100
6	SHELBY	COLLIERVILLE	$5.37	$2,014	$99,239	2.03%	$255,400
7	HAMILTON	CHATTANOOGA	$5.36	$2,009	$35,913	5.59%	$121,100
8	SHELBY	MILLINGTON	$5.32	$1,995	$43,753	4.56%	$124,144
9	MADISON	HUMBOLDT	$5.30	$1,988	$50,007	3.98%	$181,800
10	HAWKINS	KINGSPORT	$5.11*	$1,916	$34,391	5.57%	$99,900
11	SHELBY	ARLINGTON	$5.09	$1,909	$59,131	3.23%	$233,597
12	SULLIVAN	KINGSPORT	$5.08*	$1,905	$34,391	5.54%	$99,900
13	ROANE	OAK RIDGE	$5.04	$1,890	$45,474	4.16%	$120,100
14	SULLIVAN	BRISTOL	$5.03	$1,886	$36,454	5.17%	$94,000
15	MORGAN	OAKDALE	$4.98	$1,868	$32,174	5.81%	$47,502
16	COFFEE	MANCHESTER	$4.96	$1,860	$36,674	5.07%	$112,275
17	HAMILTON	LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN	$4.95	$1,858	$117,767	1.58%	$515,354
18	HAMILTON	RIDGESIDE	$4.95	$1,858	$103,995	1.79%	$293,387
19	LAUDERDALE	HENNING	$4.95	$1,856	$23,407	7.93%	$65,212
20	HAMILTON	SIGNAL MOUNTAIN	$4.93	$1,848	$78,175	2.36%	$283,948

* The current city and county combined tax rate for Kingsport-Sullivan County is $4.86 and Kingsport-Hawkins County is $4.86.  Twenty-five cents has been added to each of the Kingsport tax rates in the above table.

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The table below again shows the top 20 cites and the effect on the taxpayers’ Household Median Income.  There appears to be a disconnect with those cities having a high tax rate, lower Household Median Income and the percentage of Household Income needed to pay property taxes.

The household median income for Kingsport is $34,391 and the Kingsport majority of Kingsport property owners would pay over 5.5 percent of household income ($150k home) for property taxes if  the 25 cents is added to the Kingsport tax rate.  The Kingsport rank is 6 and 7 and Bristol comes in at a rank of 8 in the table below for the largest percent of household income needed to pay property taxes.

A taxpayer funded medical school would reduce the already low Kingsport household income and would reduce the standard of living for the majority of Kingsport citizens so the city could reap the benefits of increased revenue to spend on other pet projects.

Top 20 Cities that take the highest percentage of income for property taxes

R a n k	County	City	Total County and City Tax	Property Tax for $150k Home	Household Median Income	% Taxes from Household Income	Median Home Value
1	SHELBY	MEMPHIS	$7.29	$2,734	$32,285	8.47%	$130,695
2	LAUDERDALE	HENNING	$4.95	$1,856	$23,407	7.93%	$65,212
3	KNOX	KNOXVILLE	$5.50	$2,063	$32,538	6.34%	$102,300
4	MORGAN	OAKDALE	$4.98	$1,868	$32,174	5.81%	$47,502
5	HAMILTON	CHATTANOOGA	$5.36	$2,009	$35,913	5.59%	$121,100
6	HAWKINS	KINGSPORT	$5.11*	$1,916	$34,391	5.57%	$99,900
7	SULLIVAN	KINGSPORT	$5.08*	$1,905	$34,391	5.54%	$99,900
8	SULLIVAN	BRISTOL	$5.03	$1,886	$36,454	5.17%	$94,000
9	COFFEE	MANCHESTER	$4.96	$1,860	$36,674	5.07%	$112,275
10	SHELBY	MILLINGTON	$5.32	$1,995	$43,753	4.56%	$124,144
11	ANDERSON	OAK RIDGE	$5.45	$2,044	$45,474	4.49%	$120,100
12	ROANE	OAK RIDGE	$5.04	$1,890	$45,474	4.16%	$120,100
13	MADISON	HUMBOLDT	$5.30	$1,988	$50,007	3.98%	$181,800
14	SHELBY	ARLINGTON	$5.09	$1,909	$59,131	3.23%	$233,597
15	SHELBY	BARTLETT	$5.63	$2,111	$74,091	2.85%	$164,600
16	HAMILTON	SIGNAL MOUNTAIN	$4.93	$1,848	$78,175	2.36%	$283,948
17	SHELBY	COLLIERVILLE	$5.37	$2,014	$99,239	2.03%	$255,400
18	SHELBY	GERMANTOWN	$5.63	$2,111	$113,733	1.86%	$278,800
19	HAMILTON	RIDGESIDE	$4.95	$1,858	$103,995	1.79%	$293,387
20	HAMILTON	LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN	$4.95	$1,858	$117,767	1.58%	$515,354

* The current city and county combined tax rate for Kingsport-Sullivan County is $4.86 and Kingsport-Hawkins County is $4.86.  Twenty-five cents has been added to each of the Kingsport tax rates in the above table.

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I have heard some members of the Kingsport BMA express their desire to have a college located in Kingsport.  They should keep in mind that there are very large number of cities that have been successful without having a college and who also have a better standard of living than Kingsport.

College Cities	Household Median Income
Knoxville	$32,538
Bristol	$36,454
Chattanooga	$35,913
Johnson City	$35,746
Memphis	$35,181

The above cities that have a college appear not to have increased the standard of living and have a low household median income.

Below is the household income distribution for Kingsport and the household median income for Kingsport is $34,391.  In the graph below there are 2,636 people who earn less than $10,000  classifying them as living in poverty.

I challenge the elected officials to venture outside of their social and political groups and try to understand the plight of the majority of wage earners in the Kingsport area.  The medical school would bring jobs, but some of these jobs will be imported jobs and the common folks would not have the background or training for these jobs.  Ask what you can do to raise the standard of living (higher income) for Kingsport citizens without imposing a property tax burden.

I feel that the taxpayers should not be taking the risk of funding a medical school when there already is a state funded one in Johnson City.  The need for doctors in this area is questionable since the population is declining in Sullivan County.  If they area has trouble attracting doctors or keeping doctors, then take a hard look at the reason.

Quality of Life issues are important, but a good Standard of Living for local folks just might make the area prosper by increased spending by the majority of citizens.

The bottom line is that the area needs good paying jobs without the additional burden on the taxpayers.

I need to point out that no funding has been voted on so far, but projects such as this grows legs very fast and then its then to late to react.  The intent of this post is to make you aware of the issues so you can make your views know.  Update:  Many elected officials have expressed their support of this project including Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey who may make it a part of his campaign for governor.  Again, I must point out that I am not against the project but am very concerned about it being funded by taxpayers.

Please contact your elected officials and tell them NO to a taxpayer funded denominational medical school.  Click on the email links below and add your comments in your own email program.

email Kingsport BMA -  Mayor Dennis Phillips -  Vice Mayor Ben Mallicote -  Alderman Larry Munsey -  Alderman Jantry Shupe -  Alderwoman Valerie Joh -  Alderman Ken Marsh, Jr. -  Alderman Tom Parham	email Tennessee Legislators for area -  Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey -  Senator Mike Faulk -  Rep. Jason E. Mumpower -  Rep. Tony Shipley -  Rep. Jon Lundberg -  Rep. Dale Ford
email Sullivan County Commissioners See list for -  Commissioners individual emails or -  email Mayor and all Sullivan County Commissioners	email this post to a friend
email Candidates for Tennessee Governor -  Mike McWherter -  Roy Herron -  Ward Cammack -  Zack Wamp -  Bill Haslam -  Ron Ramsey -  Kim McMillan -  Jim Kyle

The 2008 Estimated Census numbers have been released and we find the following for North East Tennessee cities.

Johnson City and Morristown had the most growth while Kingsport has less population than it had in year 2000.

Stiefel, the world’s largest independent dermatology company, acquired by GSK in deal valued at up to $3.6 billion

GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) and Stiefel Laboratories Inc. today announced that they have signed an agreement to create a new world-leading specialist dermatology business. Under the terms of the agreement GSK will acquire the total share capital of Stiefel for a cash consideration of $2.9 billion.

Read more via GlaxoSmithKline and Stiefel to create new world-leading specialist dermatology business.

It has been reported that Exide Battery will layoff over 500 employees at the Bristol, Tennessee plant.

The Exide web pages state the following.

“Exide Technologies, with operations in more than 80 countries, is one of the world’s largest producers and recyclers of lead-acid batteries. The Company’s four global business groups – Transportation Americas, Transportation Europe and Rest of World, Industrial Energy Americas and Industrial Energy Europe and Rest of World – provide a comprehensive range of stored electrical energy products and services for industrial and transportation applications.

Transportation markets include original-equipment and aftermarket automotive, heavy-duty truck, agricultural and marine applications, and new technologies for hybrid vehicles and automotive applications. Industrial markets include network power applications such as telecommunications systems, electric utilities, railroads, photovoltaic (solar-power related) and uninterruptible power supply (UPS), and motive-power applications including lift trucks, mining and other commercial vehicles. “

See the links below for more information.

WJHL News Channel 11

Exide employees told News Channel 11 the company is laying off hundreds at its Bristol facility.

News Channel 11 is on the scene and saw employees filing out of the plant. We spoke with several workers who told us Exide was cutting 557 employees and scaling back to one shift.

Exide has not made a comment on the cuts.

News Channel 11 will continue to follow this breaking story and have the latest at Noon, 5 and 6pm.

 

Workers report major layoff at Bristol’s Exide  Kingsport Times-News

Exide Corporation Battery Plant in Bristol, Tenn., is meeting with its employees today and according to early reports will lay off more than 500 people.

Workers who were in the 8 a.m. meeting and asked to remain anonymous said production will be cut from about 18,000 to 20,000 batteries a day to 6,000 a day.

Exide’s public relations contact, Jeannine F. Addams, confirmed that Exide is meeting today with employees. She said the company will not provide a public statement until those talks are concluded.
After the layoffs, which have not been announced by the state yet, Exide would have a little more than 250 employees.

Great investigative reporting by the Bristol Herald Courier for their attempt to uncover the mystery of $92k paid to former Bristol City Manager Paul Spangler.

Somehow, I just don’t see the Kingsport Times-News doing an investigation of dealing in the City of Kingsport government.

BRISTOL, Va. – The city paid former City Manager Paul Spangler nearly $92,000 for consulting services, but neither the city nor Spangler produced any paperwork to show what he did to earn that money over a nine-month period.

Spangler left office in January 2007 and took accumulated sick leave and vacation time before formally retiring in June of that year. Between July 2007 and March 2008, the city paid Spangler $91,800 for unspecified consulting duties, under the terms of a separation agreement unanimously approved by the City Council in November 2006.

Yet in responding to the Bristol Herald Courier’s request under the state Freedom of Information Act for any and all documents relating to Spangler’s consulting work, the city supplied no invoices, letters, e-mails or other paperwork to substantiate that the former manager did any work.

Read more via Ex-City Manager’s $92K Paycheck Still a Mystery | TriCities.

Jeff Byrd saw it coming from a mile away.

For months, the president of Bristol Motor Speedway has been working on a way to counter some of the tough economic times currently circling the industry of NASCAR. Venues all across the country have been surprisingly impacted by less-than-sold-out crowds, depressed ticket sales and evaporating corporate sponsorships.

Read more via Bristol Motor Speedway still draws crowds, but sellouts take longer : NASCAR : Knoxville News Sentinel.

ETSU Bureau of Business and Economic Research has released the fourth quarter 2008 retail sales results for the Tri-Cities area.  You can see the ETSU full report by clicking on the link. Tri-Cities Retail Sales Report

Note the steep inclines in the graph below for Johnson City and Bristol  Kingsport did have growth but not as much as compared to Johnson City and Bristol.  Kingsport is just now picking up the sales that it lost due to Sams Club moving to Johnson City.  From the years 2000-2008, Kingsport increased $219.1 million in sales and Johnson City picked up $466.5 million for the same period.

In the last four years with Dennis Phillips as Mayor, Kingsport has grown less than Johnson City and Bristol in terms of retail sales growth. For the years 2004-2008 Johnson City had $264.2 million, Bristol had $138.5 million and Kingsport had $112.5 million in new retail sales growth.  Clearly, Kingsport has been the laggard in the retail sales for the Tri-Cities area in the last four years.  But, I think Kingsport just might be the biggest spender of taxpayers money in the Tri-Cities area.

Take time to look at the facts and try to understand them and do not take for granted what the Kingsport public relations machine gives you as the gospel.  See the Tri-Cities Retail Sales Report for the data.

THE TRI-CITIES

As expected, the deepening recession overwhelmed the urge to spend during the holiday selling season. During the fourth quarter, dollar sales fell 1.8% in Kingsport, 2.8% in Johnson City, and 7.1% in Bristol. Adjusted for inflation, holiday sales volume decreased 3.1% in Kingsport, 4.2% in Johnson City, and 7.1% in Bristol. In comparison, real sales were down 8.9% in Tennessee and 9.0% in the nation as a whole.

For the year 2008, Kingsport reported the smallest decline in retail activity with a loss of only 0.4% in inflation adjusted sales. Retail volume decreased 3.3% in Johnson City and 7.7% in Bristol. In comparison, real sales were down 6.3% in Tennessee and 3.8% in the United States

THE METROPOLITAN AREAS

During the fourth quarter, dollar sales in the Combined Statistical Area (CSA) declined sharply, falling 7.8% to $1,573 million. Adjusted for inflation, retail volume in the Tri-Cities metro area was a 9.2% below the same period in 2007. Dollar sales and sales volume decreased in all seven metro counties. The smallest loss was reported by Hawkins County, followed by Unicoi, Carter, Washington (TN), Scott, and Washington (VA) counties.

he recession also caused a miserable holiday shopping season in the nation and the state. In the United States, dollar sales decreased 7.6% to $1,094 billion. Adjusted for inflation, real sales were lower by a staggering 9.0%. This marks the fourth decline in a row, after twenty consecutive quarters of real growth during the 2002 to 2007 business expansion. Tennessee suffered a similar retail performance. Dollar sales fell 7.5% to $20.6 billion, and sales volume was 8.9% below 2007 levels. Retail activity has now declined for five consecutive quarters in Tennessee, creating the prospect of a one billion dollar deficit in the state budget.

Looking at the annual data for 2008, the dollar value of retail sales fell only 0.2% in the nation to $4,475 billion. But adjusted for inflation, real sales in the U.S. were down 3.8%, compared to a 1.1% increase in 2007. Retail sales in Tennessee decreased 2.8% to $82.1 billion. Sales volume in the state dropped 6.3%, compared to a 0.6% increase in 2007.

ANALYSIS

There are no surprises in this report. It is now well understood that the nation is in a major recession, and that business conditions will continue to get worse, before they get better. The last time we saw such bitter economic news was the severe recession of 1981 and 1982. It is worth recalling that the federal government under a Republican President and with a Democratic Congress undertook a massive stimulus package of tax cuts and increased spending. They were successful, but in retrospect, they probably should have done more.

The overriding danger in this recession is not its severity, but the meltdown and continuing dysfunction of the financial system. As Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stressed, there will be no recovery until the financial system is healed. And the last time the financial system collapsed was in the early 1930s, and we know what that led to.

The central bank has been pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system, and the federal government is undertaking the largest fiscal stimulus since the Depression and World War II. But the financial system remains paralyzed and the credit flows necessary for our capitalist economy to function are not being provided.

The economic outlook for the nation and the region depends upon events in the financial system. If there is an early resumption of normal financial operations, business activity would quickly recover. If the financial system continues to malfunction, the recession will last longer, and the ultimate government intervention in the financial system will be more drastic.

With this in mind, if the financial system begins to function normally over the next several weeks, then an end to the recession by late spring or early summer is very probable. Then we can fret over when the recovery will begin and will it be strong or weak. And if we are very lucky, a year from now we will be concerned about tight labor markets and inflation dangers.