No WhiteWash!

I would be embarrassed to be a current or past elected leader or those having been responsible for economic development in Sullivan County, Kingsport, and Bristol Tennessee.  The ongoing problem of several decades with the young adults leaving the area and the fact that Sullivan County and its cities have an older population has not been addressed to stop the pattern of a declining population.

I am sure that our elected leaders would not want to publicly discuss this subject, but this blog will continue to make the public aware of the situation.  In my opinion, having a company like Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Race is good for the area, but having them has made the area complacent and the leaders have not done enough to get other good paying jobs here.

There may be some who may be wondering why approach this subject because of the negative impact it may have on future people moving to the area.  My answer is that there are about two decades of not addressing this problem with results.  Enough is enough!!  Let’s get it out front and center so the citizens/leaders can understand the problems and find solutions.

The graph below is from the State of Tennessee and gives a comparison for Sullivan County against Tennessee.  The time span for the graph is from 1990 to 2000 and shows that Sullivan did lag behind in the number of young people residing in the county.  Note in the graph that it appears that the age bracket 18-24 shows that our young folks are leaving the area and the age bracket 25-44 only had a 0.1% increase.  The 65 and over age bracket in Sullivan County did better than the state with a 19.1 percent increase.

The last line in the graph gives the county rank and Sullivan County did not fare well.  In the 18-24 age bracket, Sullivan County came in as having the worst rank of all 95 counties in the state.  The 65 and over age bracket gave Sullivan County a better rank of 28.

Population Growth Rate (1990 to 2000) was 6.6% which gave Sullivan County a rank of 90 out of 95 counties.  The growth rate for years 2000- 2008 is .56%

*A rank of 1 indicates the best condition.

Population Growth by Age Bracket, 1990 to 2000

Using more current data from the U.S. Census shows that Sullivan County and its cities have a low birth rate, young adults are still leaving the area, high median age and a high percentage of older adults age 65 and over.

The age distribution graph below on the left shows that Kingsport has a greater number of young adults leaving the area and has more older adults.

The graph on the right compares Tennessee, Florida, and Sullivan County.  Most folks have an impression that Florida has a lot of retirement-age people, but Sullivan County has a larger percentage of older adults.

2005-2007 age distribution data from U. S. Census

The City of Kingsport uses a method of water meter turn on and off to keep track of its movement in the population.  This method is flawed since the young adults are more likely living with their parents and would not be picked up by the water meter method when they leave the area.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030.

Tennessee County Ranking Report for Population Growth

County Population Estimates

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008

Tennessee Counties are ranked in the table below as percent growth in the highlighted column.  Sullivan County growth rate was .56 percent and gained 852 people over an eight year period.  Sullivan County rank was 75 and Shelby County rank was 72.

Data is from U.S. Census and you can see data for all states by going to the following link.

County Population Estimates

Median Age Continues to Rise in Sullivan County, TN

The median age of the population in Sullivan County and its major cities has been rising.  This is a function of young adults leaving the area and the low birth rate.

Below in the table are median ages for the nine largest Tennessee Counties, Tennessee and Florida.

Data in the graph from U.S.Census

State Ranking Report Shows Where People Retire

Below is data that show the percent of people that are age 65 and older for the states below.  I have included Sullivan County, Tennessee and its two largest cities (Kingsport and Bristol).  The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 15 percent and the household median income is $28,070. The percent below is the percent of the population for the locations below.  Do not assume that the top three high-lighted areas below in the table are a haven for retires.  For the three high-lighted areas, it more of a function of low birth rates and young adults leaving the area.  There will have another post with the details on on all ages for Sullivan County, TN. United States — States GCT-T4-R. Percent of the Total Population Who Are 65 Years and Over (geographies ranked by estimate). Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates

* – 2007 Estimate All data is from U.S. Census

East TN County needs young adults to populate county

In the table below are the top nine largest populated counties in Tennessee. The table shows that the Sullivan County death rate is 1,228 more than the birth rate.  Sullivan County had a Total Population Change of 850 people over an eight year period (April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008) whereas Washington County that adjoins Sullivan County had a net gain of 11,441. The data below is from U.S. Census and you can download the data set for any state at the following link.  The data is in XLS spreadsheet format. County Population Estimates If you want to see just the Tennessee County data, go to the link below. http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2008-04-47.xls

Using the data set from the U.S. Census and sorting all Tennessee Counties on the Natural Increase column shows Sullivan County as having the largest decrease for Natural Increase in the state.  Shown below are the top ten Tennessee Counties that had the largest Natural Decrease. (more deaths than births)

Population Comparison For Top Nine Largest Tennessee Counties

Google has a neat way of plotting State and County population by just clicking on a state or counties within a state.  The public U.S. Census data is shown as in the graphs below and its quick and easy to see the exact population for a given year by moving your mouse over the plotted line.  The population data available for plotting goes back to 1980. Below on the left is Sullivan County population and the right side graph shows nine of the largest counties in Tennessee.  Sullivan County population is not growing and has not shown any significant growth for some time.  Elected officials and economic development folks for Sullivan County and its cities should review so they can see the progress they have made in prior years. The link is:  Graph other states and counties

Tennessee’s Best and Worst Cities Rankings

Here are the 361 U.S. metropolitan areas that Kiplinger’s Personal Finance considered for its list of Best Cities: It’s All About Jobs. See where your city ranks by sorting our criteria. The Cost of Living Index is based on 100 being the national average. To learn more about the creative class, click here. Salary Growth is the increase in household income from 2004 to 2008. Employment Growth is the growth in jobs on a per capita basis from 2000 to 2007. (Source: Kevin Stolarick of the Martin Prosperity Institute) Click on the following link to see all 361 U.S. metropolitan areas .  Full City Rankings 2009

Best and Worst Cities in Tennessee

Below is data for Tennessee metropolitan areas that has been extracted from the list of 361 cities.

The data for a given column below that is highlighted in Green is the best for the Tennessee metropolitan areas mentioned below.  If the data is in Red, then that metropolitan area has the lowest or worst data for the metropolitan areas below.

The rank is stated below within parenthesis ( ) and shows the rank as compared for all 361 U.S. metropolitan areas.  A rank of 1 would be the best and a rank of 361 would be the worst

In the table below, we can see that the Kingsport area has the highest cost of living, the lowest household income, and the worst job growth.

Sullivan County declining population – It’s time for a new direction!

Sullivan County, Tennessee and its cities have a problem with a declining population.  This has been a problem since year 2000 and Sullivan County comes out as the loser as keeping the population.  Elected leaders need to ask some hard questions why this is occurring and make changes to stop this trend.  Elected leaders may be faced with cutting services or raise taxes because of reduced revenue coming in.  However, cutting services or raising taxes and not addressing the problem would show that the elected leaders is not capable of handling the problem.

In the table below are the top 11 Tennessee Counties and their population rank based on state population estimates.  Sullivan County goes from a year 2000 rank of 6 to a rank of 11 in year 2030.

Below are graphs for selected East Tennessee county and city population estimates.  In the “County Population Estimates”, all counties are showing growth while Sullivan County is showing a decline.

The “City Population Estimates” graph shows population growth for all cities except Sullivan County cities, Kingsport and Bristol.

Data for the above is from the State of Tennessee via the links below.

---

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

TACIR, in conjunction with The University of Tennessee Center for Business and Economic Research, has published a new report containing population projections for Tennessee cities and counties in five-year intervals from 2010 to 2030. The purpose of the projections is to aid in local planning efforts, such as those outlined in Public Chapter 1101 (PC1101). The complete report and tables are available below.

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee, 2010 to 2030

Population Projection Tables HTML | EXCEL

• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Arrayed by County HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Alphabetically HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* by Development District HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties within MSAs HTML | EXCEL

*Does not include the effects of annexations after 2000.

Kingsport Population Growth

In the City of Kingsport city population table below it shows that the % growth from 2000 to 2007 resulted in a negative growth (-1.6%), while Johnson City had the best growth of 8.2%.  Morristown growth was 4.2%.  Bristol and Greeneville both had 0.3% growth. Sullivan County growth is static and Kingsport is even more dismal.  Even with Kingsport going the route of captured growth through forced annexations, they cannot even keep up with the death rate.

City Population Table