No WhiteWash!

In the table below are the top nine largest populated counties in Tennessee.

The table shows that the Sullivan County death rate is 1,228 more than the birth rate.  Sullivan County had a Total Population Change of 850 people over an eight year period (April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008) whereas Washington County that adjoins Sullivan County had a net gain of 11,441.

The data below is from U.S. Census and you can download the data set for any state at the following link.  The data is in XLS spreadsheet format. County Population Estimates

If you want to see just the Tennessee County data, go to the link below.

http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2008-04-47.xls

Using the data set from the U.S. Census and sorting all Tennessee Counties on the Natural Increase column shows Sullivan County as having the largest decrease for Natural Increase in the state.  Shown below are the top ten Tennessee Counties that had the largest Natural Decrease. (more deaths than births)

Google has a neat way of plotting State and County population by just clicking on a state or counties within a state.  The public U.S. Census data is shown as in the graphs below and its quick and easy to see the exact population for a given year by moving your mouse over the plotted line.  The population data available for plotting goes back to 1980.

Below on the left is Sullivan County population and the right side graph shows nine of the largest counties in Tennessee.  Sullivan County population is not growing and has not shown any significant growth for some time.  Elected officials and economic development folks for Sullivan County and its cities should review so they can see the progress they have made in prior years.

The link is:  Graph other states and counties

King College, a denominational college located in Bristol, Tennessee, has been in discussions with Kingsport, Bristol, and Sullivan County officials to build a medical school in Kingsport and Bristol.

The cost for the medical school would be about $150 million.  King is looking for $50 million to come from the cities of Kingsport ($40 million) and Bristol ($10 million), $50 million from the State of Tennessee, and the remaining $50 million from private donations.

At the July 7, 2009, Kingsport, Tennessee Board of Mayor and Alderman, a resolution was passed on first reading to endorse the King College Medical School Initiative, and pledged its commitment to work with Bristol, Sullivan County, and King College to advance the project.

While it does sound like a good project for the area, there will be a major impact on the taxpayers if this is funded via a property tax increase.

Mayor Dennis Phillips has stated that if Kingsport were to fund $40 million for the project, property taxes would have to be raised 25 cents.

Below are tax rates that have been extracted from the Tennessee Property Tax Rates that show the top 20 cities that have the highest tax rates in Tennessee from 406 different tax rates for the different cities and counties.

I have added 25 cents to the tax rates for the two Kingsport line items (Kingsport-Sullivan and Kingsport-Hawkins) in the table below.  Kingsport, with the 25 cents added, would have a rank of 10 and 12 as having the most expensive tax rates in the state.  Bristol has a rank of 14 and I have no knowledge if they would increase property taxes.

Top 20 Cities with the most expensive property tax rates

* The current city and county combined tax rate for Kingsport-Sullivan County is $4.86 and Kingsport-Hawkins County is $4.86.  Twenty-five cents has been added to each of the Kingsport tax rates in the above table.

The household median income for Kingsport is $34,391 and the Kingsport majority of Kingsport property owners would pay over 5.5 percent of household income ($150k home) for property taxes if  the 25 cents is added to the Kingsport tax rate.  The Kingsport rank is 6 and 7 and Bristol comes in at a rank of 8 in the table below for the largest percent of household income needed to pay property taxes.

A taxpayer funded medical school would reduce the already low Kingsport household income and would reduce the standard of living for the majority of Kingsport citizens so the city could reap the benefits of increased revenue to spend on other pet projects.

Top 20 Cities that take the highest percentage of income for property taxes

* The current city and county combined tax rate for Kingsport-Sullivan County is $4.86 and Kingsport-Hawkins County is $4.86.  Twenty-five cents has been added to each of the Kingsport tax rates in the above table.

The above cities that have a college appear not to have increased the standard of living and have a low household median income.

Below is the household income distribution for Kingsport and the household median income for Kingsport is $34,391.  In the graph below there are 2,636 people who earn less than $10,000  classifying them as living in poverty.

I challenge the elected officials to venture outside of their social and political groups and try to understand the plight of the majority of wage earners in the Kingsport area.  The medical school would bring jobs, but some of these jobs will be imported jobs and the common folks would not have the background or training for these jobs.  Ask what you can do to raise the standard of living (higher income) for Kingsport citizens without imposing a property tax burden.

I feel that the taxpayers should not be taking the risk of funding a medical school when there already is a state funded one in Johnson City.  The need for doctors in this area is questionable since the population is declining in Sullivan County.  If they area has trouble attracting doctors or keeping doctors, then take a hard look at the reason.

Quality of Life issues are important, but a good Standard of Living for local folks just might make the area prosper by increased spending by the majority of citizens.

The bottom line is that the area needs good paying jobs without the additional burden on the taxpayers.

I need to point out that no funding has been voted on so far, but projects such as this grows legs very fast and then its then to late to react.  The intent of this post is to make you aware of the issues so you can make your views know.  Update:  Many elected officials have expressed their support of this project including Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey who may make it a part of his campaign for governor.  Again, I must point out that I am not against the project but am very concerned about it being funded by taxpayers.

Please contact your elected officials and tell them NO to a taxpayer funded denominational medical school.  Click on the email links below and add your comments in your own email program.

Sullivan County, Tennessee and its cities have a problem with a declining population.  This has been a problem since year 2000 and Sullivan County comes out as the loser as keeping the population.  Elected leaders need to ask some hard questions why this is occurring and make changes to stop this trend.  Elected leaders may be faced with cutting services or raise taxes because of reduced revenue coming in.  However, cutting services or raising taxes and not addressing the problem would show that the elected leaders is not capable of handling the problem.

In the table below are the top 11 Tennessee Counties and their population rank based on state population estimates.  Sullivan County goes from a year 2000 rank of 6 to a rank of 11 in year 2030.

Below are graphs for selected East Tennessee county and city population estimates.  In the “County Population Estimates”, all counties are showing growth while Sullivan County is showing a decline.

The “City Population Estimates” graph shows population growth for all cities except Sullivan County cities, Kingsport and Bristol.

Data for the above is from the State of Tennessee via the links below.

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

TACIR, in conjunction with The University of Tennessee Center for Business and Economic Research, has published a new report containing population projections for Tennessee cities and counties in five-year intervals from 2010 to 2030. The purpose of the projections is to aid in local planning efforts, such as those outlined in Public Chapter 1101 (PC1101). The complete report and tables are available below.

Population Projections for the State of Tennessee, 2010 to 2030

Population Projection Tables HTML | EXCEL

• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Arrayed by County HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* Alphabetically HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Municipalities* by Development District HTML | EXCEL
• Aggregate Projections for Tennessee Counties within MSAs HTML | EXCEL

*Does not include the effects of annexations after 2000.

The 2008 Estimated Census numbers have been released and we find the following for North East Tennessee cities.

Johnson City and Morristown had the most growth while Kingsport has less population than it had in year 2000.

The City of Kingsport for the last few years have been telling the citizens how great things are going in Kingsport.

The City of Kingsport is fortunate to have Eastman, the largest employer in Tennessee, located in Kingsport.  Having a large employer is great for the revenue that it brings the city, but it also allows the city to become complacent.

In the table below you can compare Johnson City, Kingsport, and Bristol retail sales growth from years 2000-2008.  Johnson City has led the Tri-City area with the best growth with Bristol’s growth coming in second.

It should be pointed out that Kingsport in the last 7 quarters has only had two quarters that have been positive growth when you compare the same quarter against the same quarter the previous year.  The two positive retail sales growth quarters can be attributed to new store openings.  While it may look like it good growth, one needs to keep in mind that this is incremental growth.  The real challenge will be whether Kingsport can keep up this growth given the unemployment situation in Kingsport and  another real question is how much money can you get the citizens to give up in a bad economy?

Bristol’s growth mostly started in year 2004 and then took a nose dive in 2008.  Most of that growth could be attributed to Exit 7 stores, but the Exit 7 stores have taken a beating and many have closed.

Kingsport was fat and happy with Eastman and Sam’s Club.  But when Sam’s Club decided they would close and move to Johnson City and Bristol, then Kingsport had negative growth in the year 2007.

One can say that Kingsport has had growth, so what’s the big deal.  Read more on this below.

The retail sales data is from the following link.  Tri-Cities Retail Sales Report

Using the Kingsport retail sales dollars and applying the yearly inflation percent tells a different story.  Note the “% Growth after Inflation” column below in orange tells a different story.  The year 2003 had a positive growth of 2.53% after inflation was applied.

One can say that the retail sales for Kingsport in 2001 actually meant more for the city in buying power than the current retail sales numbers.

The graph below needs no explaining and one can see that Kingsport is not as progressive as we are led to believe.

In the City of Kingsport city population table below it shows that the % growth from 2000 to 2007 resulted in a negative growth (-1.6%), while Johnson City had the best growth of 8.2%.  Morristown growth was 4.2%.  Bristol and Greeneville both had 0.3% growth.

Sullivan County growth is static and Kingsport is even more dismal.  Even with Kingsport going the route of captured growth through forced annexations, they cannot even keep up with the death rate.

City Population Table

Kingsport has led the Tri-Cites area with the highest unemployment rate of 10.5 percent for January, 2009.  For well over a year, Kingsport has been running a higher unemployment rate which cannot be blamed solely on Eastman.

Kingsport’s unemployment rate is likely to rise even more as the full impact of the Eastman layoffs kick in.

The sad news is that as these unemployed folks look for employment to support their families, they may be forced to move out of Kingsport to take jobs elsewhere.

To view Tennessee unemployment for January, 2009, go to Labor Force Estimates

Above is the data with no spin on the data.  It is up to you to decide if Kingsport is going in the right direction.  One needs to look at who is in charge of the Kingsport government for the periods above.  Will investing in more retail or hospitality type businesses bring good paying jobs for the citizen?  What is the city doing to help the citizens?  To me it seems that the city is only looking out for itself.  I also feel that if you can get the citizens to succeed, then the city will prosper.

I am sure the Kingsport will say that they are addressing the problem with the higher education center.  But what effort is underway to get employers to locate here with jobs to handle the thousands of students that complete their training.  My guess would be that these students will have to leave the area to find good jobs.

Based on the above data, do you feel that Kingsport is as progressive as they claim to be?  Feel free to comment.

This might explain it a little more on the declining population in Kingsport, Tennessee

The percentage of American households with children under 18 living at home last year hit the lowest point — 46% — in half a century, government data reported Wednesday.

The trend reflects the aging of the Baby Boom generation and younger women having fewer children, demographers say.

"Baby Boomers have been a big force in driving a lot of different population dynamics," says Rose Kreider, a family demographer at the Census Bureau, which released the data.   Read more on Kids at Home

Claims by the administration of Mayor Dennis Phillips in the City of Kingsport, Tennessee makes one wonder what really is the truth. There is a pattern of making statements that don’t exactly tell the true story.

A December 30, 2008 Kingsport Times-News article made the following statement below

“Fleming said Kingsport’s efforts are paying off, as more than 2,700 families from 44 states have moved here in the past two years.”

In the above statement by Kingsport’s Assistant City Manager, Jeff Fleming, at first glance, one might say that having 2,700 families move to Kingsport in the last two years is great success.

The 2000 U.S. Census states that there are 2.48 people per household in Kingsport and this would mean that the population of Kingsport increased by 6,696 people.

Using the Kingsport population in the table below, we see that in 2006, the population was 44,122.  Add the new residents(6,696), the total would be 50,818 population.  This would equate to 3.70 families moving to Kingsport everyday for the past two years.  If these numbers are true, Kingsport would need to set up some form of “tent city” because of lack of housing in the area.

In the table below we see that Kingsport population growth rate is –1.8% for years 2000 to 2007.

City Population Table

On January 4, 2009, Jeff Fleming stated that “716 families from 34 states moved to Kingsport July-Dec 2008”.  Click on the link at the bottom of the post on the Kingsport! blog maintained by Kingsport’s Assistant City Manager Jeff Fleming and you will see that 600 families moved away from Kingsport during this period.

Now, we can see that the City of Kingsport is using data from other areas and hopes that people would take it as gospel.  But using data from other areas and not telling the full story unless you drill down to see how many people moved away, to me, is not honest.

The United States does not ride on the coattails of other countries. Tennessee does not rely on other States for better numbers/data and Sullivan County should also be only concerned about it’s own data or numbers.  Kingsport should get out of the business of stealing data from the surrounding areas to enhance it’s image.

The links below give information how the City of Kingsport uses data from other areas to enhance it’s image.

Kingsport, TN conveniently twists unemployment data

Blog reader debunks city claims

What are your views on this style of reporting by the city?  Leave a comment

There was a recent U.S. Census report that gave Tennessee a rank of 15 in year-over-year population growth.  The results of this report were in the majority all of the major Tennessee newspapers.

While on the surface this report sounds like good news overall for the state; however, when one looks at selected cities and counties, the news is not very good.

In the City of Kingsport city population table below it shows that the % growth from 2000 to 2007 resulted in a negative growth (-1.6%), while Johnson City had the best growth of 8.2%.  Morristown growth was 4.2%.  Bristol and Greeneville both had 0.3% growth.

In the county population table below, Sullivan County had the lowest growth of 0.4%.  The counties of Washington, Greene, Hawkins, and Hamblen all showed growth in the table below.  Sullivan County deaths exceeded births by 1,119.

Sullivan County growth is static and Kingsport is even more dismal.  Even with Kingsport going the route of captured growth through forced annexations, they cannot even keep up with the death rate.

So what is the problem?

Kingsport can Tax, Borrow, and Spend.  Kingsport can import tourists, convention attendees, and capture more people into the city by forced annexations, but in my opinion these actions will not solve the root cause of the declining population.  Get good paying jobs into Kingsport and you just might see Kingsport prosper.

Population data used in this post is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

City Population Table

County Population Table