No WhiteWash!

Population change is the rate of change in population between decennial census years. While every census region grew considerably during the twentieth century, the South and West experienced the largest increases in population.

The column on the right below shows the population percent change that occurred between the 2000 and 2010 census.

Source:  http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/

I have done many posts concerning the median age and population in Sullivan County, Tennessee and  Sullivan County has one of the oldest populations in the state (click here to view the data).

The data below is from the state and I hope will help illustrate exactly what will happen if Sullivan County continues as it has in the past.

Below in the graph is a breakdown on the population for the different age groups in Sullivan County for the census year 2000 and projections for year 2025.  Sullivan County population in year 2000 was 153,048 and is projected to be 161,262 in year 2025.

Note that in the graph below that the 2025 population for all age groups are less for age groups that are under the 55 to 59 age group.  The year 2025 graph shows that the population numbers shows the population growing for for ages group 55 and up.  The largest single age group with the largest population is the age group 75 and up and the larger part of them are females.

Is Sullivan County equipped to handle the aging population?  There should great demand for those businesses offering services to the elderly.  But, if you are a pediatric physician, you might want to start your practice elsewhere because of the low birth rate in Sullivan County.

The table below gives the actual population numbers for the different age groups.  I have added the year 2010 which is not plotted in the above graph so you can see what is projected for 2010.  The data from the state is given as number of males and females for each age group and I have added the male and female population numbers together in the table below and the graph.

Population Projections for Sullivan County, TN

You can view the data for other Tennessee Counties which includes projections for every five years up to year 2025.  Click on the link below to go to the Tennessee webpage

Demographic Information on Age-Gender Composition

In addition to the population projections for each Tennessee city and county contained in the report above, you may access more detailed cohort-component data for a city or county below. (Please note that updated demographic projections will be forthcoming.)

Please either click a county on the Tennessee state map or click a county name in the alphabetical list below the map to access the cohort-component data. Note the Word of Caution following table listed below.

Click here to view state data for Tennessee Counties

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I am one of the older population and am concerned about the future of Sullivan County.   No, you can’t move us out of the county, but you should be concerned about the future of the county when we have left this world.  There must be something in place to keep young people in Sullivan County.  A good start would be get companies that have good paying jobs to locate here.   If you too are concerned, talk to your elected officials.  You can email them at the following links.

Comments are welcome.

The table below shows the median age for all of the 95 Tennessee counties.  Sullivan County has a rank of 5 for higher median age and is the 9th largest county in Tennessee.  Data is from the links below.

Population of Tennessee Counties in 2008

Population Estimates by Age in 2008

Below is a series of ranking tables that compares the top 20 Tennessee counties that had the largest retail sales in 2008.  The top 20 counties listed below had retail sales that were $71,443,928,487 out of a total $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Sullivan County is highlighted because of its declining population, low median wages, and young adults leaving Sullivan County.  The major cities in Sullivan County are Kingsport and Bristol. Sullivan County has one of the largest private employers in the state (Eastman Chemical) and as well as the Bristol Nascar race.

The tables below will  show that there are many counties that are doing much better than Sullivan County without having an Eastman Chemical or the Bristol races.

The problems as I see it have been ongoing for several decades. As an elected leader or involved in economic development, is this something that you are proud of?  This blog will continue to point out the problems and if elected leaders fail to respond to the problems….at least the world will know about Sullivan County.  The bottom line is that the Northeast Tennessee needs good paying jobs!!

Sullivan County has a history of being controlled by Republicans.  It just might be that this may be the problem.  Maybe we need Democratic leadership to get something done.

Also in Table 1 are links for the county websites.  Some county web pages are well done and project a good image for the county and some are rather plain and are lacking in information such as access to public documents (minutes, etc.).  You can be the judge as to which counties have the best website by clicking on the links below in Table 1.

The top 20 counties below in Table 3 had retail sales that were  $71,443,928,487 out of $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Nine counties did better than Sullivan County in the Retail Sales per Person column and four of them were in East Tennessee.

Tables 5 and 6 below show the Estimated Current Property Values for the counties and shows how strong the property taxes are for a county.  The property values below include industrial and commercial, residential, farms, etc.

The property vales used in table 5 were taken from the 2008 Tax Aggregate Report of Tennessee.  The Estimated Current Property Value column in Table 5 includes the county and municipalities property values and are added together for one property value for the county in Table 5.

Williamson and Sevier Counties are clearly the big winners in Table 6. Washington County which does not have an Eastman Chemical but has more Property Value per Person than Sullivan County and is a smaller county in square miles.

In the above Tables 3 and 4, Bradley County rank was 17 for both retail sales and retail sales per person.  In Table 6, Bradley County has a rank of 5 and would indicate a strong manufacturing base.  Also Bradley County will be getting the $1 billion Wacker Chemie AG plant which will employ 500 – 600 people.

Hemlock Semiconductor Corp.,  plans to build a $1.2 billion facility near Clarksville (Montgomery County). That project is expected to open in 2012 and create 800 jobs.

Volkswagen plans to employ about 2,000 workers and invest about $1 billion in Chattanooga.

Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Races have been good for Sullivan County, but in my opinion the county, Kingsport, and Bristol have relied on it for far too long and have become complacent when it comes to economic development.

Sullivan County in Table 7 has the worst rank of the top 2 retail sales counties for population growth.  Over an eight year period from years 2000 to 2008, Sullivan County only gained 850 in population.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030

All data used in the above tables are from the links highlighted above in blue.

Below is the household median income for the top 20 Tennessee Counties that had the largest retail sales.  The household median income is for the county and may be different for cities within the county.  Below is the household median Income for Sullivan County cities

Kingsport  $34,391  – Individuals below poverty level 18.0%

Bristol  $36,454 – Individuals below poverty level 14.6%

Sullivan County – Individuals below poverty level 15.8%

Below is the household income distribution for Kingsport and the household median income for Kingsport is $34,391.  In the graph below there are 2,636 people who are living in poverty.

I would be embarrassed to be a current or past elected leader or those having been responsible for economic development in Sullivan County, Kingsport, and Bristol Tennessee.  The ongoing problem of several decades with the young adults leaving the area and the fact that Sullivan County and its cities have an older population has not been addressed to stop the pattern of a declining population.

I am sure that our elected leaders would not want to publicly discuss this subject, but this blog will continue to make the public aware of the situation.  In my opinion, having a company like Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Race is good for the area, but having them has made the area complacent and the leaders have not done enough to get other good paying jobs here.

There may be some who may be wondering why approach this subject because of the negative impact it may have on future people moving to the area.  My answer is that there are about two decades of not addressing this problem with results.  Enough is enough!!  Let’s get it out front and center so the citizens/leaders can understand the problems and find solutions.

The graph below is from the State of Tennessee and gives a comparison for Sullivan County against Tennessee.  The time span for the graph is from 1990 to 2000 and shows that Sullivan did lag behind in the number of young people residing in the county.  Note in the graph that it appears that the age bracket 18-24 shows that our young folks are leaving the area and the age bracket 25-44 only had a 0.1% increase.  The 65 and over age bracket in Sullivan County did better than the state with a 19.1 percent increase.

The last line in the graph gives the county rank and Sullivan County did not fare well.  In the 18-24 age bracket, Sullivan County came in as having the worst rank of all 95 counties in the state.  The 65 and over age bracket gave Sullivan County a better rank of 28.

Population Growth Rate (1990 to 2000) was 6.6% which gave Sullivan County a rank of 90 out of 95 counties.  The growth rate for years 2000- 2008 is .56%

*A rank of 1 indicates the best condition.

Population Growth by Age Bracket, 1990 to 2000

Using more current data from the U.S. Census shows that Sullivan County and its cities have a low birth rate, young adults are still leaving the area, high median age and a high percentage of older adults age 65 and over.

The age distribution graph below on the left shows that Kingsport has a greater number of young adults leaving the area and has more older adults.

The graph on the right compares Tennessee, Florida, and Sullivan County.  Most folks have an impression that Florida has a lot of retirement-age people, but Sullivan County has a larger percentage of older adults.

2005-2007 age distribution data from U. S. Census

The City of Kingsport uses a method of water meter turn on and off to keep track of its movement in the population.  This method is flawed since the young adults are more likely living with their parents and would not be picked up by the water meter method when they leave the area.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030.

County Population Estimates

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008

Tennessee Counties are ranked in the table below as percent growth in the highlighted column.  Sullivan County growth rate was .56 percent and gained 852 people over an eight year period.  Sullivan County rank was 75 and Shelby County rank was 72.

Data is from U.S. Census and you can see data for all states by going to the following link.

County Population Estimates

Tennessee has three counties that made it in the U.S.Census 100 Fastest Growing Counties.  You can see all 100 counties by clicking on the Excel link below.

Resident Population Estimates for the 100 Fastest Growing U.S. Counties with 10,000 or More Population in 2008: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008(CO-EST2008-08)

Excel (30k) CSV (7k)

• Rutherford County
• Rutherford County Chamber of Commerce
• Williamson County Government.
• Williamson County, Tennessee Economic Development
• Fayette County
• Fayette County Chamber of Commerce

The median age of the population in Sullivan County and its major cities has been rising.  This is a function of young adults leaving the area and the low birth rate.

Below in the table are median ages for the nine largest Tennessee Counties, Tennessee and Florida.

Data in the graph from U.S.Census

Below is data that show the percent of people that are age 65 and older for the states below.  I have included Sullivan County, Tennessee and its two largest cities (Kingsport and Bristol).  The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 15 percent and the household median income is $28,070.

The percent below is the percent of the population for the locations below.  Do not assume that the top three high-lighted areas below in the table are a haven for retires.  For the three high-lighted areas, it more of a function of low birth rates and young adults leaving the area.  There will have another post with the details on on all ages for Sullivan County, TN.

United States — States GCT-T4-R. Percent of the Total Population Who Are 65 Years and Over (geographies ranked by estimate). Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates

* – 2007 Estimate

All data is from U.S. Census