No WhiteWash!

Below is a series of ranking tables that compares the top 20 Tennessee counties that had the largest retail sales in 2008.  The top 20 counties listed below had retail sales that were $71,443,928,487 out of a total $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Sullivan County is highlighted because of its declining population, low median wages, and young adults leaving Sullivan County.  The major cities in Sullivan County are Kingsport and Bristol. Sullivan County has one of the largest private employers in the state (Eastman Chemical) and as well as the Bristol Nascar race.

The tables below will  show that there are many counties that are doing much better than Sullivan County without having an Eastman Chemical or the Bristol races.

The problems as I see it have been ongoing for several decades. As an elected leader or involved in economic development, is this something that you are proud of?  This blog will continue to point out the problems and if elected leaders fail to respond to the problems….at least the world will know about Sullivan County.  The bottom line is that the Northeast Tennessee needs good paying jobs!!

Sullivan County has a history of being controlled by Republicans.  It just might be that this may be the problem.  Maybe we need Democratic leadership to get something done.

Also in Table 1 are links for the county websites.  Some county web pages are well done and project a good image for the county and some are rather plain and are lacking in information such as access to public documents (minutes, etc.).  You can be the judge as to which counties have the best website by clicking on the links below in Table 1.

The top 20 counties below in Table 3 had retail sales that were  $71,443,928,487 out of $90,007,566,528 for all 95 counties.  The entire data set can be viewed for all counties at this link:  2008 Retail Sales

Nine counties did better than Sullivan County in the Retail Sales per Person column and four of them were in East Tennessee.

Tables 5 and 6 below show the Estimated Current Property Values for the counties and shows how strong the property taxes are for a county.  The property values below include industrial and commercial, residential, farms, etc.

The property vales used in table 5 were taken from the 2008 Tax Aggregate Report of Tennessee.  The Estimated Current Property Value column in Table 5 includes the county and municipalities property values and are added together for one property value for the county in Table 5.

Williamson and Sevier Counties are clearly the big winners in Table 6. Washington County which does not have an Eastman Chemical but has more Property Value per Person than Sullivan County and is a smaller county in square miles.

In the above Tables 3 and 4, Bradley County rank was 17 for both retail sales and retail sales per person.  In Table 6, Bradley County has a rank of 5 and would indicate a strong manufacturing base.  Also Bradley County will be getting the $1 billion Wacker Chemie AG plant which will employ 500 – 600 people.

Hemlock Semiconductor Corp.,  plans to build a $1.2 billion facility near Clarksville (Montgomery County). That project is expected to open in 2012 and create 800 jobs.

Volkswagen plans to employ about 2,000 workers and invest about $1 billion in Chattanooga.

Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Races have been good for Sullivan County, but in my opinion the county, Kingsport, and Bristol have relied on it for far too long and have become complacent when it comes to economic development.

Sullivan County in Table 7 has the worst rank of the top 2 retail sales counties for population growth.  Over an eight year period from years 2000 to 2008, Sullivan County only gained 850 in population.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030

All data used in the above tables are from the links highlighted above in blue.

Below is the household median income for the top 20 Tennessee Counties that had the largest retail sales.  The household median income is for the county and may be different for cities within the county.  Below is the household median Income for Sullivan County cities

Kingsport  $34,391  – Individuals below poverty level 18.0%

Bristol  $36,454 – Individuals below poverty level 14.6%

Sullivan County – Individuals below poverty level 15.8%

Below is the household income distribution for Kingsport and the household median income for Kingsport is $34,391.  In the graph below there are 2,636 people who are living in poverty.

I would be embarrassed to be a current or past elected leader or those having been responsible for economic development in Sullivan County, Kingsport, and Bristol Tennessee.  The ongoing problem of several decades with the young adults leaving the area and the fact that Sullivan County and its cities have an older population has not been addressed to stop the pattern of a declining population.

I am sure that our elected leaders would not want to publicly discuss this subject, but this blog will continue to make the public aware of the situation.  In my opinion, having a company like Eastman Chemical and the Bristol Nascar Race is good for the area, but having them has made the area complacent and the leaders have not done enough to get other good paying jobs here.

There may be some who may be wondering why approach this subject because of the negative impact it may have on future people moving to the area.  My answer is that there are about two decades of not addressing this problem with results.  Enough is enough!!  Let’s get it out front and center so the citizens/leaders can understand the problems and find solutions.

The graph below is from the State of Tennessee and gives a comparison for Sullivan County against Tennessee.  The time span for the graph is from 1990 to 2000 and shows that Sullivan did lag behind in the number of young people residing in the county.  Note in the graph that it appears that the age bracket 18-24 shows that our young folks are leaving the area and the age bracket 25-44 only had a 0.1% increase.  The 65 and over age bracket in Sullivan County did better than the state with a 19.1 percent increase.

The last line in the graph gives the county rank and Sullivan County did not fare well.  In the 18-24 age bracket, Sullivan County came in as having the worst rank of all 95 counties in the state.  The 65 and over age bracket gave Sullivan County a better rank of 28.

Population Growth Rate (1990 to 2000) was 6.6% which gave Sullivan County a rank of 90 out of 95 counties.  The growth rate for years 2000- 2008 is .56%

*A rank of 1 indicates the best condition.

Population Growth by Age Bracket, 1990 to 2000

Using more current data from the U.S. Census shows that Sullivan County and its cities have a low birth rate, young adults are still leaving the area, high median age and a high percentage of older adults age 65 and over.

The age distribution graph below on the left shows that Kingsport has a greater number of young adults leaving the area and has more older adults.

The graph on the right compares Tennessee, Florida, and Sullivan County.  Most folks have an impression that Florida has a lot of retirement-age people, but Sullivan County has a larger percentage of older adults.

2005-2007 age distribution data from U. S. Census

The City of Kingsport uses a method of water meter turn on and off to keep track of its movement in the population.  This method is flawed since the young adults are more likely living with their parents and would not be picked up by the water meter method when they leave the area.

Sullivan County death rate is higher than the birth rate and the county gained only 850 in population in the time span of 2000 to 2008.  The gain has come from new arrivals to the area.

Sullivan County is considered one of the larger populated counties in Tennessee.  In 1994, Sullivan County was the fifth most populated county.  Because of the growth in other counties and the declining population in Sullivan County, the rank of Sullivan County is estimated to be 11 in year 2030.

County Population Estimates

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008

Tennessee Counties are ranked in the table below as percent growth in the highlighted column.  Sullivan County growth rate was .56 percent and gained 852 people over an eight year period.  Sullivan County rank was 75 and Shelby County rank was 72.

Data is from U.S. Census and you can see data for all states by going to the following link.

County Population Estimates

Tennessee has three counties that made it in the U.S.Census 100 Fastest Growing Counties.  You can see all 100 counties by clicking on the Excel link below.

Resident Population Estimates for the 100 Fastest Growing U.S. Counties with 10,000 or More Population in 2008: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008(CO-EST2008-08)

Excel (30k) CSV (7k)

• Rutherford County
• Rutherford County Chamber of Commerce
• Williamson County Government.
• Williamson County, Tennessee Economic Development
• Fayette County
• Fayette County Chamber of Commerce

The median age of the population in Sullivan County and its major cities has been rising.  This is a function of young adults leaving the area and the low birth rate.

Below in the table are median ages for the nine largest Tennessee Counties, Tennessee and Florida.

Data in the graph from U.S.Census

And The Winner Is….
Virginia reclaims the title of America’s Top State for Business this year, squeezing past last year’s Top State, Texas, by a nose—just four points. Texas  is still a business powerhouse—the Lone Star State still has the top Economy in the nation despite the falling price of oil, and its Transportation and Infrastructure remain second to none.  But Virginia, always a solid performer across the board, managed just enough improvement in the right areas—like Economy (7 vs. 17 last year)–to regain the title it won in 2007.

• Complete 2009 Rankings
• What’s New This Year
• Full 2008 Results
• Full 2007 Results

Below is data that show the percent of people that are age 65 and older for the states below.  I have included Sullivan County, Tennessee and its two largest cities (Kingsport and Bristol).  The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 15 percent and the household median income is $28,070.

The percent below is the percent of the population for the locations below.  Do not assume that the top three high-lighted areas below in the table are a haven for retires.  For the three high-lighted areas, it more of a function of low birth rates and young adults leaving the area.  There will have another post with the details on on all ages for Sullivan County, TN.

United States — States GCT-T4-R. Percent of the Total Population Who Are 65 Years and Over (geographies ranked by estimate). Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates

* – 2007 Estimate

All data is from U.S. Census

In the table below are the top nine largest populated counties in Tennessee.

The table shows that the Sullivan County death rate is 1,228 more than the birth rate.  Sullivan County had a Total Population Change of 850 people over an eight year period (April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008) whereas Washington County that adjoins Sullivan County had a net gain of 11,441.

The data below is from U.S. Census and you can download the data set for any state at the following link.  The data is in XLS spreadsheet format. County Population Estimates

If you want to see just the Tennessee County data, go to the link below.

http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2008-04-47.xls

Using the data set from the U.S. Census and sorting all Tennessee Counties on the Natural Increase column shows Sullivan County as having the largest decrease for Natural Increase in the state.  Shown below are the top ten Tennessee Counties that had the largest Natural Decrease. (more deaths than births)

The comments of citizens in the Bristol Herald Courier link below might be of interest to you.  Some great comments concerning the King Medical School.

There was one lone commissioner that voted against the resolution  to support the medical school.  Thank you Commissioner John McKamey for using good logic in your “no” vote.  It appears that the remaining commissioners are more concerned about money than they are about understanding the area’s problems.

Sullivan County’s resolution, approved in a 21-1 vote, also included no money for the project.

Commissioner John McKamey of Piney Flats cast the lone dissenting vote. He said the county has a shortage of doctors because it hasn’t done anything to keep the ones who graduate from programs like the Quillen College of Medicine at East Tennessee State University in Johnson City, Tenn., from leaving the area.

“Over half the people who graduate [from Quillen] leave the area,” McKamey said as he challenged one of the reasons for supporting the school. “The solution to this thing is to keep the doctors here.”

McKamey said if the county supports the medical school now, it would commit itself to paying $100 million in taxpayer money. He said the $50 million in local taxes and $50 million in state taxes would be too large a burden for the region’s residents to bear.

Read more via Sullivan Commission Supports King College Med School | TriCities.