North East TN Republican Controlled County in Trouble

August 30th, 2009 Leave a comment Go to comments

Update: This blog has sent the post below to 83 people via email or U.S.Mail that are in the list below.

Kingsport Board of Mayor and Alderman
Mayor of Sullivan County
Sullivan County Commissioners
Bristol City Council
Bluff City Mayor and Alderman
Kingsport Chamber of Commerce
Tennessee Legislators for North East TN
U.S. Congress Legislators for North East TN
Commissioner Matt Kisber- TN Economic & Community Development
Governor Phil Bredesen
Tennessee Candidates for Governor
NETWORKS Sullivan Partnership Board of Directors and Members


Below is a graph and data table that shows the 1980-2005 actual populations and the projections for the years 2010-2030 for the eleven largest counties in Tennessee.  The data below will show that the estimated population in year 2030 will be less than it was in 1980 for Sullivan County.

I am sure that the past and current elected leaders will want this graph and the facts below to disappear because it reflects on their lack of response to address the problem with Sullivan County and its cities in its declining population and other problems in the Sullivan County area.  This blog will continue to expose the facts and there will be ”No Spin” and “No WhiteWash! of the data presented on this blog.

    Top Eleven Largest Counties Population – 1980 to 2030

Data for the graph and the table below is from the following links State and County Population and Population Projections for the State of Tennessee

Other Facts
  • In 1980, Sullivan County was the fifth largest county and it is estimated that in 2030, Sullivan County will be the eleventh largest county.
  • The population of Sullivan County is an older population and the median age for Sullivan County is 42.9 years, Tennessee is 37.2 years and Florida is 39.8 years.  The Percent 65 Years and Over for Kingsport is 20.1%, Bristol is 19.5%, Sullivan County is 17.8% and Florida is 17.4%.
  • Sullivan County and its cities, (Kingsport and Bristol) have a large number of young adults leaving the area.
  • The death rate for Sullivan County is more than the birth rate.
  • Sullivan County birth rate is low as compared to the state.
  • Sullivan County only gained 852 people between years 2000 to 2008 which gave a net gain of 0.56 percent growth.
  • Average Household median income is low for the area.  Kingsport is $34,391, Bristol is $36,454, and Sullivan County is $37,559. Two people in the same household making the new Federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour would make $30,160 per year.
  • The percent of poverty for those 65 and older in Sullivan County, TN is 12.2%, Kingsport is 11.6%, and Bristol is 16.2%. These percentages are 2007 numbers and could be higher due to the recession.  The household median income for 65 and older in Sullivan County is $28,070.
  • The poverty level for Kingsport is 18%, Bristol is 14.6%, and Sullivan County is 15.8%.  These percentages are 2007 numbers and could be higher due to the recession.  Poverty level for 2009 is defined for a person’s income to be $10,830 per year.
  • Kiplinger’s Personal Finance survey rates the Kingsport MSA as having the highest cost of living, low median income and the worst job growth out of 10 major cities/metro areas in Tennessee.
  • The area unemployment is high with Kingsport having the highest unemployment – See link for more details Jobs/Unemployment
  • The Republican Party has continuously controlled Tennessee’s 1st Congressional District since 1881.  It appears for the most part that most of the new jobs are going to the more Democrat Party area.
  • Kingsport has publicly stated that they would like to make Kingsport a destination city for visitors to the area while not addressing the real problems the area faces.  Spending the tax payers’ money to obtain a short-cut to generate revenue, in my view, does not help the average citizen. Spending money for a conference center expansion and aquatic center will not solve the area’s problems.  The aquatic center will not make any difference when one needs a job and there is not one available locally.  By the same token, if a job exists in the area and you need it badly, then the aquatic center does not enter the picture.
  • The area has one of the largest employers (Eastman Chemical) in the state and a major tourist attraction (Bristol Nascar Race).  It appears that the elected leaders have become complacent about finding new good paying jobs because these two businesses have not increased the population and/or stopped the exit of young adults leaving the area.
  • Kingsport is the largest city in Sullivan County and is proud of its reputation for having good schools.  Dobyns-Bennett High School has been named by Newsweek magazine as one of the top high schools in the country.  Having great schools apparently is not enough to keep the young adults from leaving the area in search of good paying jobs.
  • Kingsport has built a Higher Education Center, but I have a concern that there will not be the needed jobs in the area for those who finish their education.  I am for education, but with the large number of students, and with nothing major coming in as far as jobs, many will leave to look elsewhere for jobs.  Increasing the percentage of college graduates in the area is good, but the percentage of college graduates might be skewed because of the number of college educated young people leaving the area and the fact that the large percentage of older folks that do not have higher education.
  • It appears that local cities are striving to get new retail business into the area as an easy way to increase revenue.  Having retail is a quick way to get revenue, but as retail increases in a given city, then the share that retailers gets decreases because they have to share retail sales among many retailers.  I think a better approach would be to increase the flow of money into the area via good paying jobs, which would  provide for longer term stability for these retailers and this will also increase the standard of living for city/county citizens.
  • Because of declining revenues or increased spending, cities in Sullivan County have chosen to annex new areas for the tax revenue, increase their population, and to enable the city to borrow more because of the increased asset value.  This helps the cities, but decreases the already low standard of living for the citizens.
Conclusion

The facts presented above may concern some that bringing out these issues will cause folks or businesses to avoid the North East Tennessee area.  The facts presented above are available to anyone who desires to do research.  I am sure that any large company would do their research before deciding to invest in Sullivan County.  I also feel that “enough is enough” and the issues need to be up-front and center stage to be addressed.  No more hiding the issues….deal with them head on so the region will begin to respond economically. Good paying jobs in my view is what is needed to restore what has been lost.

    There must be lots of jobs and a few hundred will not do.  It should be a broad mix of jobs that would be attractive to different types of workers who have different skills or educational training.
    We need elected officials that will not cater to special interests groups or use get rich quick schemes to get revenue into the local government.  Get the money flowing into the area via good paying jobs and then the region might become attractive to those job seekers. The current and past economic development efforts are not working and efforts need to be stepped up and action is needed now.  If the economic development people are not capable of delivering results, then they need to be replaced.  If local politics are hindering the economic development efforts, then that needs to be exposed and addressed.
    If you are an elected official or economic development person and your views or lack of vision is holding up the region from rebounding, then you need to step aside.
What you can do?
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