No WhiteWash!

There have been some that are stating that the King College Medical School is needed to address the doctor shortage.  I am sure that in the future there will be a shortage of doctors, but for Sullivan County this does not seem to be a problem.

King College’s website has the following statement below that I must take issue with.  It states that if 50 doctors were to stay in the region every year, the economic impact would be $325 million by 2025.

The map below is what King considers to be the region which has 43 counties in 5 different states.  In the Tennessee counties, Sullivan County is not mentioned as a Medically Underserved county, but King College is looking for Kingsport citizens to fork out $40 million and Bristol to give $10 million.  They are also looking for the State of Tennessee to dole out $50 million. I am not against the medical school, but am against a tax increase on the local citizens to pay for the building of the school.  See link, Against Building Taxpayer Funded Denominational Medical School in East TN

King College, in my view, is using some wrong assumptions.  If a current doctor retired and another doctor took his/her place in the region, then you cannot count that as an increase in economic impact.  Also, in the 4 year period between 2021-2025, they are hoping that 200 doctors will stay in the region.  First you must consider that ETSU is supplying about 66 doctors per year and if half of them stayed in the region and the 50 that King hopes would stay in the region would very quickly create an oversupply of doctors.

The results on oversupply of new doctors could be:

• Average earnings are lower than expected earnings based on expected returns to training and other factors
• New physicians have greater problems obtaining employment
• Individual physicians see fewer patients compared to historical norms
• Individual physicians work fewer hours in patient care
• Physicians are more likely to relocate

The Impact of Creating New Doctors

If the Medical School at King was able to ensure that 50 new doctors were to stay in the region every year, the newly created, otherwise non-existent, economic impact would be $65 million per year beginning in 2021.  By 2025, the impact of physicians trained at King will equal $325 million.

Below is the shortage of doctors for the Tennessee Counties in the above King College map.  The data is from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services at the following link.  HPSA by State & County

The shortage of primary medical care physicians are highlighted in yellow.  HPSA = Health Professional Shortage Areas

The table below gives data from Tennessee Commission on Children and Youth on the medical doctors per 100,000.  Sullivan County has a rank of 5 and Washington County has a rank of 2.

Northeast Tennessee seems to have a very good concentration of doctors and would not get the economic impact that King College claims should happen.  It appears that other counties and states would get the impact while Tennessee, Kingsport, and Bristol are asked to fund the new medical school.

Medical Doctors Per 100,000 (Rate) – 2007

There have been many elected officials that have added their name in support of the medical college.  I trust that they have taken the time to research/understand for themselves the details of this project and not just listen to a speech from King College.

Tennessee has on its website the information below.  See Sullivan County, Tennessee Selected Statistical Information

See the following link for more information. Health Resources and Services Administration Shortage