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The magic pill for success in a declining population

February 12th, 2009 Leave a comment Go to comments

It’s no secret that the City of Kingsport, Tennessee has a declining population of –1.6 percent in the years 2000-2007.

The population in Kingsport is aging and quite frankly the city can not keep us old people from dying.  The birth rate in Kingsport is lower as compared to other area and cannot keep up with the death rate.

Kingsport needs to be thinking long term, because at the rate they are going, they will have trouble getting students for the Higher Education Center or to work in the retail establishments.

I would propose a magic blue pill that can be issued by the city dispensary to help solve the declining population dilemma in Kingsport.  This pill would be taken by the male population to spur the population growth.

There are also some economic advantages to this magic blue pill because before being dispensed, the males would have to visit a doctor to get the ticker checked out. The medical community also would get a shot in the arm from the increased births.

The creative minds in the City of Kingsport finance department could come up with ways to pay for the pill.  They could even use a tax credit for the user upon successful execution.

See below for more information on declining population.


There was a recent U.S. Census report that gave Tennessee a rank of 15 in year-over-year population growth.  The results of this report were in the majority all of the major Tennessee newspapers.

While on the surface this report sounds like good news overall for the state; however, when one looks at selected cities and counties, the news is not very good.

In the City of Kingsport city population table below it shows that the % growth from 2000 to 2007 resulted in a negative growth (-1.6%), while Johnson City had the best growth of 8.2%.  Morristown growth was 4.2%.  Bristol and Greeneville both had 0.3% growth.

In the county population table below, Sullivan County had the lowest growth of 0.4%.  The counties of Washington, Greene, Hawkins, and Hamblen all showed growth in the table below.  Sullivan County deaths exceeded births by 1,119.

Sullivan County growth is static and Kingsport is even more dismal.  Even with Kingsport going the route of captured growth through forced annexations, they cannot even keep up with the death rate.

So what is the problem?

Is it the aging population?Is it the smell in Kingsport or air pollution?
Is it a lack of leadership in Kingsport and Sullivan County? Why don’t people want to live here?
Is it the high property tax rate?Do we have enough good paying jobs here that are not retail?
Have the officials put too much emphasis on Eastman for tax dollars and thus not developing other industry jobs?Why are the organizations (Networks, Chamber of Commerce, etc) that Kingsport gives money to spur economic development held accountable to produce results?
Can people afford to live in Kingsport?Why is the unemployment rate in Kingsport so high?
Did Kingsport tell the new retail firms that it has negative population growth before they opened for business?Why do we have more deaths than births?
Is spending money to make Kingsport a “destination city” for tourists the best option, or is it better to develop good paying jobs first?Why is the individual poverty level in Kingsport (18%) higher that the U.S. rate (13.3%)
Why is the per capita income (in 2007 inflation-adjusted dollars) at $23,208 for Kingsport while the U.S is $26,178?25.7% of Kingsport population is 60 years and over.  The U.S. Census Bureau is predicting an Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury. What are Kingsport’s plans to address this problem?
Is the City of Kingsport controlled by Eastman Chemical and the “good old boys club”?

Kingsport can Tax, Borrow, and Spend.  Kingsport can import tourists, convention attendees, and capture more people into the city by forced annexations, but in my opinion these actions will not solve the root cause of the declining population.  Get good paying jobs into Kingsport and you just might see Kingsport prosper.

Population data used in this post is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

City Population Table

YearKingsportJohnson CityBristolGreenevilleMorristown
200045,12555,99825,39115,39226,292
200144,74156,15025,33915,31326,468
200244,57257,47125,33015,21026,268
200344,41057,64925,14015,15626,316
200444,08158,07124,97915,20126,490
200544,11459,10425,06715,27826,765
200644,12260,34825,24415,42027034
200744,43561,02825,47415,44627,432
% Growth 2000-2007-1.6%8.2%0.3%0.3%4.2%

County Population Table

YearSullivan Washington GreeneHamblenHawkins
2000152,992107,50563,04253,69658,253
2001152,437107,66763,27954,16258,792
2002152,651109,33563,27954,16258,792
2003152,459110,21363,66655,03358,735
2004151,701111,19164,15755,41859,236
2005152,092112,72464,86456,01460,017
2006152,521114,77565,43756,53560,750
2007153,519116,65765,97157,05461,829
% Growth 2000-2007.04%7.8%4.4%5.9%5.8%
Births (2006-2007)11,9439,6715,3396,1254,685
Deaths  (2006-2007)13,0628,4585,4084,5784,074

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